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Modelling long-term human immunodeficiency virus dynamic models with application to acquired immune deficiency syndrome clinical study


  • Jianwei Chen


Mathematical modelling of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) dynamics has played an important role in acquired immune deficiency syndrome research. Deterministic dynamic models have been developed to study the viral dynamic process for understanding the pathogenesis of HIV type 1 infection and antiviral treatment strategies. We propose a new multistage estimation procedure which uses data, HIV viral load and CD4+ T-cell counts, from an acquired immune deficiency syndrome clinical study, to estimate the parameters in a long-term HIV dynamic model containing both constant and time varying parameters. Simulation studies and a real data application show that the methods proposed are efficient and appropriate to estimate both constant and time varying parameters in long-term HIV dynamic models. Copyright (c) 2010 Royal Statistical Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianwei Chen, 2010. "Modelling long-term human immunodeficiency virus dynamic models with application to acquired immune deficiency syndrome clinical study," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 59(5), pages 805-820.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:59:y:2010:i:5:p:805-820

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David D. Ho & Avidan U. Neumann & Alan S. Perelson & Wen Chen & John M. Leonard & Martin Markowitz, 1995. "Rapid Turnover of Plasma Virions and CD4 Lymphocytes in HIV-1 Infection," Working Papers 95-01-002, Santa Fe Institute.
    2. Yangxin Huang & Dacheng Liu & Hulin Wu, 2006. "Hierarchical Bayesian Methods for Estimation of Parameters in a Longitudinal HIV Dynamic System," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 413-423, June.
    3. Cong Han & Kathryn Chaloner, 2004. "Bayesian Experimental Design for Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Models with Application to HIV Dynamics," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 25-33, March.
    4. Alan S. Perelson & Avidan U. Neumann & Martin Markowitz & John M. Leonard & David D. Ho, 1996. "HIV-1 Dynamics In Vivo: Virion Clearance Rate, Infected Cell Lifespan, and Viral Generation Time," Working Papers 96-02-004, Santa Fe Institute.
    5. Hulin Wu & A. Adam Ding, 1999. "Population HIV-1 Dynamics In Vivo: Applicable Models and Inferential Tools for Virological Data from AIDS Clinical Trials," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 410-418, June.
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