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Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

Author

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  • Martin Lindegren
  • Vasilis Dakos
  • Joachim P Gröger
  • Anna Gårdmark
  • Georgs Kornilovs
  • Saskia A Otto
  • Christian Möllmann

Abstract

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Lindegren & Vasilis Dakos & Joachim P Gröger & Anna Gårdmark & Georgs Kornilovs & Saskia A Otto & Christian Möllmann, 2012. "Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-9, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0038410
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0038410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. May & Simon A. Levin & George Sugihara, 2008. "Ecology for bankers," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 893-894, February.
    2. John M. Drake & Blaine D. Griffen, 2010. "Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7314), pages 456-459, September.
    3. Marten Scheffer & Jordi Bascompte & William A. Brock & Victor Brovkin & Stephen R. Carpenter & Vasilis Dakos & Hermann Held & Egbert H. van Nes & Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara, 2009. "Early-warning signals for critical transitions," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7260), pages 53-59, September.
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    1. Joachim P Gröger & Hans-Harald Hinrichsen & Patrick Polte, 2014. "Broad-Scale Climate Influences on Spring-Spawning Herring (Clupea harengus, L.) Recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Mathilde Maîtrot & Geof Wood & Joe Devine, 2021. "Understanding resilience: Lessons from lived experiences of extreme poverty in Bangladesh," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(6), pages 894-910, November.

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