Medicare eligibility and healthcare access, affordability, and financial strain for low- and higher-income adults in the United States: A regression discontinuity analysis

Background: US policymakers are debating whether to expand the Medicare program by lowering the age of eligibility. The goal of this study was to determine the association of Medicare eligibility and enrollment with healthcare access, affordability, and financial strain from medical bills in a contemporary population of low- and higher-income adults in the US. Methods and findings: We used cross-sectional data from the National Health Interview Survey (2019) to examine the association of Medicare eligibility and enrollment with outcomes by income status using a local randomization-based regression discontinuity approach. After weighting to account for survey sampling, the low-income group consisted of 1,660,188 adults age 64 years and 1,488,875 adults age 66 years, with similar baseline characteristics, including distribution of sex (59.2% versus 59.7% female) and education (10.8% versus 12.5% with bachelor’s degree or higher). The higher-income group consisted of 2,110,995 adults age 64 years and 2,167,676 adults age 66 years, with similar distribution of baseline characteristics, including sex (40.0% versus 49.4% female) and education (41.0% versus 41.6%). The share of adults age 64 versus 66 years enrolled in Medicare differed within low-income (27.6% versus 87.8%, p