IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pgph00/0004752.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas Hertzog
  • Marshall Makate
  • David Chipanta
  • Boladé Banougnin
  • Martina Mchenga
  • Gavin Pereira
  • Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu
  • Jennifer Dunne
  • Paula S Tallman
  • Shalean Collins
  • Kefyalew Addis Alene
  • Pauline Rousseau-Gueutin
  • Astghik Mavisakalyan
  • Ivan C Hanigan

Abstract

Droughts have profound and far-reaching impacts on human health and well-being, but their influence on sexual violence among adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is underexamined.This study examines the association between drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women globally, using cross-sectional, nationally representative data from the Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys (VACS) from 2013 and 2019. The sample includes 35,309 females aged 13–24 from 14 countries in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. Sexual violence was defined based on unwanted sexual contact, completed or attempted forced penetration, and pressured sexual activity within the past 12 months. Drought exposure captured intensity and duration of drought conditions measured using the Global Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a 48-month period before surveys. Bayesian Generalized Linear Models were employed to estimate the association between drought exposure and reported experiences of sexual violence, controlling for age, relationship status, school attendance, and wealth. The analysis revealed that exposure to prolonged and extreme drought, lasting 8–43 months in a 48-month period, was associated with higher odds of sexual violence (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Very dry periods are also associated with increased odds of experiencing sexual violence (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.05). In contrast with extreme conditions, exposure to slight to moderate drought and recent and long periods suggested potential protective effects.This study provides novel evidence of an association between extreme drought and an increased likelihood of sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women in LMICs. The findings emphasise how climate change can exacerbate social vulnerabilities through its indirect effects, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessments of its impact on vulnerable populations.Why was this study done?: What did the researchers do and find?: What do these findings mean?:

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Hertzog & Marshall Makate & David Chipanta & Boladé Banougnin & Martina Mchenga & Gavin Pereira & Sylvester Dodzi Nyadanu & Jennifer Dunne & Paula S Tallman & Shalean Collins & Kefyalew Addis Al, 2025. "Extreme drought and sexual violence against adolescent girls and young women: A multi-country population-based study," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(6), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0004752
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004752?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bethuel Sibongiseni Ngcamu & Felix Chari, 2020. "Drought Influences on Food Insecurity in Africa: A Systematic Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Kamar Naser & Zaeem Haq & Bernard D. Naughton, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Health Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematised Review and Thematic Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(4), pages 1-22, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amit Kumar & Juna Probha Devi & T. Mohanasundari, 2025. "Climate change impact assessment on livelihood vulnerability of tribal communities: a systematic review," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1-50, June.
    2. Vassilios Makrakis & Nelly Kostoulas-Makrakis & Alexander Siegmund & Delfina María Martelletti & Alejandro Álvarez-Vanegas & Mateo Alfredo Castillo Ceja & Miguel Gonzalez & Carolina Carrillo Artavia &, 2025. "Professionalization of Academic Teaching in Latin American Universities to Address SDGs Applying the Stages of Concern Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-25, June.
    3. Gift Nxumalo & Bashar Bashir & Karam Alsafadi & Hussein Bachir & Endre Harsányi & Sana Arshad & Safwan Mohammed, 2022. "Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Llewellyn Leonard, 2022. "Climate Change Impacts and Challenges of Combating Food Insecurity in Rural Somkhele, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Liwei Liu & Winton Cheng & Hsin-Wei Kuo, 2025. "A Narrative Review on Smart Sensors and IoT Solutions for Sustainable Agriculture and Aquaculture Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-34, June.
    6. Enyew, Tsegaye Molla, 2024. "Determinants of farmers’ willingness to pay for irrigation improvements in Northcentral Ethiopia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Elias C. Ngwu & Victor C. Nwosumba & Vincent C. Onah, 2024. "Russia‐Ukraine war, the leadership question and sustainable food security in Africa," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 4135-4144, August.
    8. Stanley Kibiwot Tireito & Dr. Wangari Jennifer & Dr. Kimani Sabas, 2024. "Effectiveness of Early Warning Systems in Enhancing Food Security in Pokot Central Sub County, West Pokot County, Kenya," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(8), pages 4319-4325, August.
    9. Abdulazeez Hudu Wudil & Muhammad Usman & Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka & Ladislav Pilař & Mortala Boye, 2022. "Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel, 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in Africa: Regional Variations and Socio-Economic Perspectives," MPRA Paper 120918, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Apr 2024.
    11. Martin Limbikani Mwale & Tony Mwenda Kamninga, 2024. "Unintended consequences of farm input subsidies: women’s contraceptive usage and knock-on effects on children," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-28, September.
    12. Teferi Demissie & Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Extremes: A Study of Malawi and Zambia (1981–2021)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Batool, Aamina & Kartal, Veysi & Ali, Zulfiqar & Scholz, Miklas & Ali, Farman, 2025. "A novel regional forecastable multiscalar standardized drought index (RFMSDI) for regional drought monitoring and assessment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    14. Yufei Wang & Mangirdas Morkūnas & Jinzhao Wei, 2024. "Mapping the Landscape of Climate-Smart Agriculture and Food Loss: A Bibliometric and Bibliographic Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-24, September.
    15. Zoleka Ncoyini-Manciya & Michael J. Savage, 2022. "The Assessment of Future Air Temperature and Rainfall Changes Based on the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM): The Case of the Wartburg Community in KZN Midlands, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0004752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: globalpubhealth (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.