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Risk taking by decision makers—using card-based decision gaming to develop models of behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • J Medhurst

    (Larrainzar Consulting Solutions Ltd)

  • I Stanton

    (Defence Science and Technology Laboratories)

  • A Berry

    (Defence Science and Technology Laboratories)

Abstract

This paper describes an experimental method for determining the value of different types of information to military decision makers. The experimental method used a simple scenario and a set of serials constructed from cards, each presenting a single piece of information and presented sequentially. Each of a number of pairs of players were taken through the scenario and asked to judge how they would respond to the situation. This paper extends on the method presented in previous papers to consider the case of a decision in which the response can both increase and decrease as more information is presented. This allows a more general military problem to be considered, that of risk-taking behaviour in response to the possibility of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear events.

Suggested Citation

  • J Medhurst & I Stanton & A Berry, 2010. "Risk taking by decision makers—using card-based decision gaming to develop models of behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(11), pages 1561-1571, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:11:d:10.1057_jors.2009.130
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2009.130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moffat, James & Medhurst, John, 2009. "Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1147-1157, August.
    2. L Dodd & J Moffat & J Smith, 2006. "Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 643-654, June.
    3. J Moffat & I Campbell & P Glover, 2004. "Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 340-349, April.
    4. J Moffat, 2000. "Representing the command and control process in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(4), pages 431-439, April.
    5. R A Forder, 2004. "Operational research in the UK Ministry of Defence: an overview," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 319-332, April.
    6. J Moffat & S Witty, 2002. "Bayesian decision making and military command and control," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(7), pages 709-718, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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