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Technology and Epidemics


  • Alberto Chong

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Luisa Zanforlin

    (International Monetary Fund)


Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures shows that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2002. "Technology and Epidemics," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-6.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:49:y:2002:i:3:p:6

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Naidoo & Jeffrey T. Huber & Pamela Cupp & Qishan Wu, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between an emerging infectious disease epidemic and the body of scientific literature associated with it: The case of HIV/AIDS in the United States," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 64(2), pages 380-391, February.
    2. Alberto Chong & Alejandro Micco, 2002. "Internet y la capacidad de innovar en América Latina," Research Department Publications 4292, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    4. Chong, Alberto & Micco, Alejandro, 2003. "The Internet and the ability to innovate in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 53-72, March.
    5. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Fortuna, Natércia, 2010. "Human capital, R&D, trade, and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 335-350, April.
    6. Felix Rioja & Neven Valev, 2002. "Financial Development and Growth: A Positive, Monotonic Relationship?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0207, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    7. Ozan Hatipoglu, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Inequality and Innovation in a Schumpeterian Framework," Working Papers 2007/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    8. César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2001. "On Non-Linearities Between Exports Of Manufactures And Economic Growth," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 279-311, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O39 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Other
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development


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