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The Uzbek Growth Puzzle

Author

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  • Jeromin Zettelmeyer

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan's output fell less than in any other former Soviet republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country's hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has surprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan's performance constitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by extending the model in a way that encompasses competing hypotheses of what makes Uzbekistan's output path unusual. The main result is that Uzbekistan's performance can be accounted for by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 1999. "The Uzbek Growth Puzzle," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-3.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:46:y:1999:i:3:p:3
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    Cited by:

    1. Wehrheim, Peter & Schoeller-Schletter, Anja & Martius, Christopher (ed.), 2008. "Continuity and change: land and water use reforms in rural Uzbekistan. Socio-economic and legal analyses for the region Khorezm," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 43, number 92320, September.
    2. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2015. "The effects of variability under farm land consolidation process: A perspective of cotton-growing farmers in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211829, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. J. Rosser & Marina Rosser, 2008. "A critique of the new comparative economics," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 81-97, March.
    4. Ichiro Iwasaki & Taku Suzuki, 2016. "Radicalism Versus Gradualism: An Analytical Survey Of The Transition Strategy Debate," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 807-834, September.
    5. Manuela Trochke, 2011. "Social Capital and Economic Development : The Case of Uzbekistan," Working Papers 310, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    6. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "The International Community and the CIS-7," Trinity Economics Papers 20033, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    7. Marek Dabrowski, 2023. "Thirty years of economic transition in the former Soviet Union: Microeconomic and institutional dimensions," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, April.
    8. Ranaweera, Thilak, 2003. "Market disequilibria and inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3144, The World Bank.
    9. J. E. J. De Vrijer & Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Mr. Julian Berengaut & Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik & Mr. Mark W Lewis, 2002. "An Interim Assessment of Ukrainian Output Developments, 2000-01," IMF Working Papers 2002/097, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.

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