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Momentum and Reversals When Overconfident Investors Underestimate Their Competition
[The financial crisis of 2007–2009: Causes and remedies]

Author

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  • Jiang Luo
  • Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
  • Sheridan Titman

Abstract

We develop a model in which overconfident investors overestimate their own signal quality but are skeptical of others’ Investors who are initially uninformed believe that early-informed investors have learned little, leading the former investors to provide excess liquidity, which, in turn, causes underreaction and short-run momentum. Skeptical investors can also react to stale information, causing momentum, followed by reversals. Hence, skepticism generates both momentum and reversals; the latter are amplified if investors overassess their own signal precision. We explain how long-run reversals can disappear while shorter-term momentum prevails, provide empirical implications, and link momentum to liquidity and price efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang Luo & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2021. "Momentum and Reversals When Overconfident Investors Underestimate Their Competition [The financial crisis of 2007–2009: Causes and remedies]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 351-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:1:p:351-393.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Onishchenko, Olena & Zhao, Jing & Kongahawatte, Sampath & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2024. "Investor heterogeneity and anchoring-induced momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    2. Yang, Haijun & Ge, Hengshun & Gao, Xinpeng, 2022. "An information diffusion model for momentum effect based on investor wealth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Andy C W Chui & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2022. "Momentum, Reversals, and Investor Clientele [Illiquidity and stock returns: Cross-section and time-series effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 217-255.
    4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 2023. "Momentum: Evidence and insights 30 years later," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Xie, Jun & Fang, Yuying & Gao, Bin & Tan, Chunzhi, 2023. "Availability heuristic and expected returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Bottazzi, Giulio & Giachini, Daniele, 2022. "A general equilibrium model of investor sentiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. Ashour, Samar & Hao, Grace Qing & Harper, Adam, 2023. "Investor sentiment, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Daniel Hofmann & Karl Ludwig Keiber & Adalbert Luczak, 2024. "On the linkage of momentum and reversal – evidence from the G7 stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(3), pages 798-833, September.
    9. Dong, Liang & Dai, Yiqing & Haque, Tariq & Kot, Hung Wan & Yamada, Takeshi, 2022. "Coskewness and reversal of momentum returns: The US and international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 241-264.
    10. Andrea Antico & Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2024. "Pricing anomalies in a general equilibrium model with biased learning," LEM Papers Series 2024/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Xiong, Tao & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Institutional ownership and momentum in the Chinese A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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