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Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Y. Chang
  • Samuel M. Hartzmark
  • David H. Solomon
  • Eugene F. Soltes

Abstract

We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually announced. Analysts have more positive forecast errors in positive seasonality quarters, consistent with the returns being driven by mistaken earnings estimates. We show that investors appear to overweight recent lower earnings following positive seasonality quarters, leading to pessimistic forecasts in the subsequent positive seasonality quarter. The returns are not explained by risk-based explanations, firm-specific information, increased volume, or idiosyncratic volatility.Received June 19, 2014; accepted April 25, 2016, by Editor David Hirshleifer.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Y. Chang & Samuel M. Hartzmark & David H. Solomon & Eugene F. Soltes, 2017. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 281-323.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:1:p:281-323.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhw044
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qi Cui & Tianhong Zhao & Tingyue Cui, 2023. "Macroeconomic Announcements: How Announcements Shape Trading Strategies," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    2. Stephen A. Hillegeist & James P. Kavourakis & Matthew Pinnuck, 2023. "The association between quarter length, forecast errors, and firms’ voluntary disclosures," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 1885-1918, June.
    3. Boulland, Romain & Dessaint, Olivier, 2017. "Announcing the announcement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 59-79.
    4. Shen, Lingbo, 2022. "Essays on behavioral finance and corporate finance," Other publications TiSEM a9b98a25-a208-4ba6-9344-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. David Veenman & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2022. "The Earnings Expectations Game and the Dispersion Anomaly," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 3129-3149, April.
    6. Qin Li & Ben Lourie & Alexander Nekrasov & Terry Shevlin, 2022. "Employee Turnover and Firm Performance: Large-Sample Archival Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5667-5683, August.
    7. Fink, Josef & Palan, Stefan & Theissen, Erik, 2020. "Earnings autocorrelation and the post-earnings-announcement drift: Experimental evidence," CFR Working Papers 20-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Douglas (DJ) Fairhurst, 2020. "Financing seasonal demand," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 839-870, September.
    9. Josef Fink & Stefan Palan & Erik Theissen, 2020. "Earnings Autocorrelation and the Post-Earnings-AnnouncementDrift – Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-03, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    10. Grullon, Gustavo & Kaba, Yamil & Núñez-Torres, Alexander, 2020. "When low beats high: Riding the sales seasonality premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 572-591.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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