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The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Bounded or Falling?

Author

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  • David Feldman

Abstract

This short paper resolves an apparent contradiction between Feldman's (1989) and Riedel's (2000) equilibrium models of the term structure of interest rates under incomplete information. Feldman (1989) showed that in an incomplete information version of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), where the stochastic productivity factors are unobservable, equilibrium term structures are ‘interior’ and bounded. Interestingly, Riedel (2000) showed that an incomplete information version of Lucas (1978), with an unobservable constant growth rate, induces a ‘corner’ unbounded equilibrium term structure: it decreases to negative infinity. This paper defines constant and stochastic asymptotic moments, clarifies the apparent conflict between Feldman's and Riedel's equilibria, and discusses implications. Because productivity and growth rates are not directly observable in the real world, the question we answer is of particular relevance. JEL Classification codes: E43, G12, D92, D80, D51.

Suggested Citation

  • David Feldman, 2003. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Bounded or Falling?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 103-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:7:y:2003:i:1:p:103-113.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1022510926704
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lundtofte, Frederik, 2008. "Expected life-time utility and hedging demands in a partially observable economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1072-1096, August.
    2. Constantin Mellios, 2007. "Interest rate options valuation under incomplete information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 99-117, April.
    3. Frederik Lundtofte, 2013. "The quality of public information and the term structure of interest rates," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 715-740, May.
    4. Carlo Da Dalt & David Feldman & Gerald Garvey & Peter Joakim Westerholm, 2019. "Contrarians or momentum chasers? Individual investors’ behavior when trading exchange‐traded funds," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 553-578, May.
    5. Gau, Yin-Feng & Hua, Mingshu & Wu, Wen-Lin, 2010. "International asset allocation for incompletely-informed investors," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 422-447, November.
    6. David Feldman, 2007. "Incomplete information equilibria: Separation theorems and other myths," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 119-149, April.
    7. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.
    8. Wen-Lin Wu & Yin-Feng Gau, 2017. "Home bias in portfolio choices: social learning among partially informed agents," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 527-556, February.
    9. Morita, Hiroshi & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2021. "The interest rate determination when economic variables are partially observable," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies

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