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Food imports, international prices, and violence in Africa

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  • Stijn van Weezel

Abstract

This study examines the effect of food price fluctuations on violence in Africa, using international food prices as a source of exogenous shock weighted by a country’s import pattern of major food commodities to create a country-specific food price index. The regression analysis shows that between 1990 and 2011, food price increases are associated with higher levels of violence. Moving from low to high values in the price index corresponds, after controlling for economic, social, and political factors, to an increase in violence intensity of 1.3 incidents. This effect is predominantly driven by imports of low-value-added primary products. Despite the statistically significant results, the predictive power of food prices is relatively low, both in and out of sample. Using 2012 data for out-of-sample forecast shows that food prices are a relatively poor predictor of violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Stijn van Weezel, 2016. "Food imports, international prices, and violence in Africa," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 758-781.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:68:y:2016:i:3:p:758-781.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpw015
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    2. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick MartinShields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series 178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Isabelle Cadoret & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Véronique Thelen, 2017. "The Diabolical Spiral: Food Prices and Civil Conflicts," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 2017-17, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
    4. Samuel Brazys & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Indra de Soysa, 2019. "Oil Price Volatility and Political Unrest: Prudence and Protest in Producer and Consumer Societies, 1980-2013," Working Papers 201908 Key words: Oil wea, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    5. Yousef, Sahar, 2020. "Can Trade Liberalization in Agricultural Products Mitigate the Effect of Climate Change on Civil Strife?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304609, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. John Ssozi & Simplice Asongu & Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2019. "The effectiveness of development aid for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(2), pages 284-305, March.
    7. Li Donni, Paolo & Marino, Maria & Welzel, Christian, 2021. "How important is culture to understand political protest?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Gerling, Lena, 2017. "Riots and the window of opportunity for coup plotters: Evidence on the link between urban protests and coups d'état," CIW Discussion Papers 2/2017, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    9. Prof. Hyacinth Ichoku & Dr. Ihuoma Anthony & Dr. Tosin Olushola & Apinran Martins, 2023. "Analyzing the Evolving Relationships among Climate Change, Insecurity, and Food Price Inflation in Nigeria: NARDL Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 100-124, November.
    10. Sophie de Bruin & Just Denerink & Pritpal Randhawa & Idrissa Wade & Hester Biemans & Christian Siderius, 2022. "IFAD Research Series 71: Urbanizing food systems: exploring opportunities for rural transformation," IFAD Research Series 320721, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    11. Gerling, Lena, 2017. "Riots and the Window of Opportunity for Coup Plotters: Evidence on the Link between Urban Protests and Coups d’État," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick Martin-Shields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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