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Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution

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  • Bart Hobijn
  • Fernanda Nechio

Abstract

We estimate the upper-level elasticity of substitution between goods and services of a nested aggregate CES preference specification. We show how this elasticity can be derived from the long-run response of the relative price of a good to a change in its VAT rate. We estimate this elasticity using new data on changes in VAT rates across 74 goods and services for 25 European Union countries from 1996 through 2015. Depending on the level of aggregation, we find a VAT pass-through rate between 0.4 and 0.7. This implies an upper-level elasticity of 3, at the lowest level of aggregation with 74 categories, and 1 (Cobb–Douglas preferences) at a high level of aggregation that distinguishes 10 categories of goods and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Hobijn & Fernanda Nechio, 2019. "Sticker Shocks: Using VAT Changes to Estimate Upper-Level Elasticities of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 799-833.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:17:y:2019:i:3:p:799-833.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvy009
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    Cited by:

    1. Delalibera, Bruno R. & Cavalcanti Ferreira, Pedro & Gomes, Diego B.P. & Soares, Johann, 2024. "Tax reforms and network effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Ou, Shengliang & Zhang, Donghai & Zhang, Renbin, 2021. "Information frictions, monetary policy, and the paradox of price flexibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 70-82.
    4. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rachedi, Omar & Santoro, Emiliano, 2025. "The sectoral origins of heterogeneous spending multipliers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    5. Philippe Andrade & Martin Arazi & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Aggregate Effects of Sectoral Shocks in an Open Economy," Working Papers 23-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Omar Rachedi, 2020. "Structural transformation in the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 2003, Banco de España.
    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Marina Steininger, 2022. "Quantifying Brexit: from ex post to ex ante using structural gravity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 401-465, May.
    8. Pedro Cavalcanti Gonçalves Ferreira, 2021. "Market Power and Inequality: a model of the Brazilian economy," Working Papers REM 2021/0201, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Proebsting, Christian, 2022. "Market segmentation and spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Jae Won Lee & Seunghyeon Lee, 2025. "Monetary Non-Neutrality in a Multisector Economy: The Role of Risk-Sharing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    11. Philippe Andrade & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2022. "Do Multisectoral New Keynesian Models Match Sectoral Data?," Working Papers 22-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Hafedh Bouakez & Omar Rachedi & Emiliano Santoro, 2023. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Multisector Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 209-239, January.
    13. Falck, Elisabeth & Röhe, Oke & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "Digital transformation and its impact on labour productivity: A multi-sector perspective," Discussion Papers 28/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Factor Specificity and Real Rigidities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 208-222, October.
    15. Carvalho, Carlos & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy, 2021. "Price selection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 56-75.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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