IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/erevae/v30y2003i4p539-558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting ability of theory-constrained two-stage demand systems

Author

Listed:
  • Geir Wæhler Gustavsen

Abstract

Demand models are commonly used to forecast effects of policy changes and two-stage demand systems are frequently used when disaggregated food items are involved. A two-stage system implies interconnections between the stages. These interconnections can be modelled to make unconditional forecasts, or the second stage can be modelled separately to make conditional forecasts. We compare conditional and unconditional elasticity-based and direct statistical forecasts. For our data, conditional forecasts are superior to unconditional forecasts and forecasts derived from elasticities are superior to direct statistical forecasts. Imposition of the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions of consumer theory does not improve the forecasts. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Geir Wæhler Gustavsen, 2003. "Forecasting ability of theory-constrained two-stage demand systems," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(4), pages 539-558, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:30:y:2003:i:4:p:539-558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gustavsen, Geir Wæhler & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2018. "Consumer cohorts and the demand for meat and dairy products," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276865, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    2. Geir Gustavsen & Kyrre Rickertsen, 2014. "Consumer cohorts and purchases of nonalcoholic beverages," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 427-449, March.
    3. Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2008. "Consumer Cohorts and Milk Purchases," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43551, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Ana Gil & José Molina, 2009. "Alcohol demand among young people in Spain: an addictive QUAIDS," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 515-530, June.
    5. Muhammad, Andrew & Ngeleza, Guyslain K., 2009. "European Union preferential trade agreements with developing countries and their impact on Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the United Kingdom:," IFPRI discussion papers 862, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:30:y:2003:i:4:p:539-558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.