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Price Prediction Errors and Real Activity: A Reassessment

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  • Gray, Jo Anna
  • Spencer, David E

Abstract

Rational expectations, natural-rate macro-models in which aggregate demand disturbances affect the real sector through price prediction errors, while powerful and tractable analytical tools, are often perceived to be of questionable empirical relevance. This paper reexamines the empirical role of price prediction errors in determining the level of real aggregate activity. The approach is distinguished by accounting for aggregate supply-side disturbances and by more careful treatment of natural rates. Contrary to some previous studies, the authors find considerable empirical support for the hypothesis that demand-driven price level surprises are positively and significantly correlated with aggregate real economic activity. Copyright 1990 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Gray, Jo Anna & Spencer, David E, 1990. "Price Prediction Errors and Real Activity: A Reassessment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 658-681, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:28:y:1990:i:4:p:658-81
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
    2. Maria Ward Otoo, 1999. "Temporary employment and the natural rate of unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. repec:wsi:wsbook:6875 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ketter, W. & Collins, J. & Gini, M. & Gupta, A. & Schrater, P., 2008. "Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-061-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Thurston, Thom B., 2002. "On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 615-631.
    6. Smant, David J. C., 1998. "Modelling trends, expectations and the cyclical behaviour of prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-161, January.
    7. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 21-30.
    8. Ketter, W. & Collins, J. & Gini, M. & Gupta, A. & Schrater, P., 2011. "Real-time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2011-012-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.

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