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Stock Index, Interest Rate and Gold Price of Nepal: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Hom Nath Gaire

    (Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI), Kathmandu)

Abstract

This study examines cointegration and causality between the NEPSE index vis-Ã -vis short term interest rates and gold prices in Nepal. Main objective of this study is to identify the long run equilibrium relationship as well as cause and effect relationship between the variables under consideration. Monthly time series data cover the period starting from January 2006 to December 2016, which were sourced from Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE), Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) and Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers Association (NEGOSIDA). The results of the unit root (ADF) tests and Cointegration (Johansen) tests confirm that there is long-run equilibrium relationship between the NEPSE index, short term interest rates and gold prices in Nepal. In the meantime, Granger Causality test reveals that there is no causality between the gold price and NEPSE index. However, it is confirmed that there is unilateral causal relationship between the NEPSE index and short term interest rate which moves from interest rate to NEPSE index. From the test results it can be concluded that the short-term interest rates are the better predictor for NEPSE index and bullion (commodity) market is yet to be developed as substitute of the Stock Market

Suggested Citation

  • Hom Nath Gaire, 2017. "Stock Index, Interest Rate and Gold Price of Nepal: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(2), pages 15-30, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Tian & Shiguang Ma, 2010. "The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 490-508.
    2. Prakash Shrestha Ph.D. & Biggyan Raj Subedi, 2014. "Empirical Examination of Determinants of Stock Index in Nepal," NRB Working Paper 24/2014, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    3. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D. & Biggyan Raj Subedi, 2014. "Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 26(2), pages 25-40, October.
    4. repec:icf:icfjaf:v:19:y:2013:i:1:p:99-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger Causality; Cointegration; Stock Index and Interest Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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