IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nbp/nbpbik/v49y2018i6p639-670.html

IFRS 9 in credit risk modelling Evidence from SLOOS for Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Lukasz Prorokowski

    (Masaryk University, Institute of Financial Complex Systems)

Abstract

Analysing model documentation for 17 AIRB and FIRB credit risk models, this paper delivers IFRS 9 gap analysis of the existing models used for capital adequacy requirements. Based on the review of the IFRS 9 regulatory framework, the paper assumes that the use of the existing models may cause IFRS 9-related compliance gaps that render the existing models inadequate for the provisioning of expected losses. Recognising the potential IFRS 9 gaps, the paper addresses the question whether there is synergy between the AIRB and FIRB modelling approaches and the IFRS 9 rules. To this end, the paper confirms that the existing credit risk models cannot be re-used for IFRS 9 in their current forms.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz Prorokowski, 2018. "IFRS 9 in credit risk modelling Evidence from SLOOS for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 49(6), pages 639-670.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:49:y:2018:i:6:p:639-670
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2018/06/BIK_06_2018_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zoltán Novotny-Farkas, 2016. "The Interaction of the IFRS 9 Expected Loss Approach with Supervisory Rules and Implications for Financial Stability," Accounting in Europe, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 197-227, May.
    2. Mcphail, Joseph & Mcphail, Lihong, 2014. "Forecasting lifetime credit losses: Modelling considerations for complying with the new FASB and IASB current expected credit loss models," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 7(4), pages 375-388, September.
    3. Pool, Sebastiaan & de Haan, Leo & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2015. "Loan loss provisioning, bank credit and the real economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 124-136.
    4. Ray Ball, 2006. "International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS): pros and cons for investors," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(S1), pages 5-27.
    5. Chawla, Gaurav & Forest Jr., Lawrence R. & Aguais, Scott D., 2016. "Point-in-time loss-given default rates and exposures at default models for IFRS 9/CECL and stress testing," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 9(3), pages 249-263, June.
    6. Lukasz Prorokowski, 2016. "Environmental Risk Index for financial services firms," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(1), pages 16-44, February.
    7. Gunther Gebhardt & Zoltan Novotny-Farkas, 2011. "Mandatory IFRS Adoption and Accounting Quality of European Banks," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3-4), pages 289-333, April.
    8. Stergios Leventis & Panagiotis Dimitropoulos & Asokan Anandarajan, 2011. "Loan Loss Provisions, Earnings Management and Capital Management under IFRS: The Case of EU Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 103-122, October.
    9. Stolz, Stéphanie & Wedow, Michael, 2011. "Banks' regulatory capital buffer and the business cycle: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 98-110, June.
    10. Mary Barth & Wayne Landsman, 2010. "How did Financial Reporting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 399-423.
    11. Robert M. Bushman & Christopher D. Williams, 2015. "Delayed Expected Loss Recognition and the Risk Profile of Banks," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 53(3), pages 511-553, June.
    12. Reitgruber, Wolfgang, 2016. "Expected loss provisioning under upcoming IFRS 9 Impairment Standards: A new source of P&L volatility — can we tame it?," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 9(4), pages 332-343, October.
    13. Skoglund, Jimmy, 2017. "Credit risk term-structures for lifetime impairment forecasting: A practical guide," Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, Henry Stewart Publications, vol. 10(2), pages 177-195, April.
    14. Lukasz Prorokowski, 2016. "Bankrupt UK cities: PD model for credit risk in sub-sovereign sector," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 495-528.
    15. Wolfgang Reitgruber, 2014. "Methodological thoughts on expected loss estimates for IFRS 9 impairment: hidden reserves, cyclical loss predictions and LGD backtesting," Papers 1411.4265, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2015.
    16. Claudio Borio & Philip Lowe, 2001. "To provision or not to provision," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    17. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2011. "Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2012. "Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-182.
    19. Christopher Nobes, 2013. "The continued survival of international differences under IFRS," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 83-111, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onali, Enrico & Ginesti, Gianluca & Cardillo, Giovanni & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2024. "Market reaction to the expected loss model in banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Kund, Arndt-Gerrit & Rugilo, Daniel, 2023. "Does IFRS 9 increase banks’ resilience?," Working Paper Series 2792, European Central Bank.
    3. Luminita-Georgiana ACHIM & Elena MITOI & Marian Valentin MOLDOVEANU & Codrut-Ioan TURLEA, 2021. "Credit Scoring – General Approach in the IFRS 9 Context," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 19(162), pages 384-384, May.
    4. Noor Hashim & Weijia Li & John O'Hanlon, 2019. "Reflections on the development of the FASB’s and IASB’s expected-loss methods of accounting for credit losses," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(6), pages 682-725, September.
    5. Emrah Arbak, 2017. "Identifying the provisioning policies of Belgian banks," Working Paper Research 326, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Petr Polak & Jiri Panos, 2019. "The Impact of Expectations on IFRS 9 Loan Loss Provisions," Research and Policy Notes 2019/03, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    7. Marton, Jan & Runesson, Emmeli, 2017. "The predictive ability of loan loss provisions in banks – Effects of accounting standards, enforcement and incentives," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 162-180.
    8. Zoltán Novotny-Farkas, 2016. "The Interaction of the IFRS 9 Expected Loss Approach with Supervisory Rules and Implications for Financial Stability," Accounting in Europe, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 197-227, May.
    9. Di Fabio, Costanza & Ramassa, Paola & Quagli, Alberto, 2021. "Income smoothing in European banks: The contrasting effects of monitoring mechanisms," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    10. Raffaela Casciello & Marco Maffei & David A. Ziebart, 2024. "Regulatory and contextual factors influencing earnings and capital management decisions: evidence from the European banking sector," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 87-146, July.
    11. Ioan-Codruț ȚURLEA, 2021. "Development of Rating Models under IFRS 9," CECCAR Business Review, Body of Expert and Licensed Accountants of Romania (CECCAR), vol. 2(7), pages 64-72, July.
    12. Emrah Arbak, 2017. "Identifying the provisioning policies of Belgian banks," Working Paper Research 326, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Jannis Bischof & Holger Daske, 2016. "Interpreting the European Union’s IFRS Endorsement Criteria: The Case of IFRS 9," Accounting in Europe, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-168, May.
    14. Manganaris, Panayotis & Beccalli, Elena & Dimitropoulos, Panagiotis, 2017. "Bank transparency and the crisis," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 121-137.
    15. Joohyung Ha, 2021. "Bank accounting conservatism and bank loan quality," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3-4), pages 498-532, March.
    16. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-010 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. García Osma, Beatriz & Mora, Araceli & Porcuna-Enguix, Luis, 2019. "Prudential supervisors’ independence and income smoothing in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 156-176.
    18. Laux, Christian, 2016. "The economic consequences of extending the use of fair value accounting in regulatory capital calculations: A discussion," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 204-208.
    19. MITOI Elena & ACHIM Luminita & DESPA Madalin & TURLEA Codrut, 2020. "Ifrs 9 And The Interaction With Basel Iii Regulation Pillars," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 213-222, December.
    20. Gebhardt, Günther & Novotny-Farkas, Zoltán, 2018. "Comparability and predictive ability of loan loss allowances: The role of accounting regulation versus bank supervision," CFS Working Paper Series 591, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    21. Trang H. Dao & Amedeo Pugliese & Joshua Ronen, 2023. "Assessing banks’ resilience: A complementary approach to stress testing using fair values from banks’ financial statements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1206-1239, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • M49 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:49:y:2018:i:6:p:639-670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wojciech Burjanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.