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Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Friedman

    (University of Washington
    University of California Los Angeles)

  • Hunter York

    (University of Washington)

  • Nicholas Graetz

    (University of Washington
    University of Pennsylvania)

  • Lauren Woyczynski

    (University of Washington)

  • Joanna Whisnant

    (University of Washington)

  • Simon I. Hay

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Emmanuela Gakidou

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

Abstract

Education is a key dimension of well-being and a crucial indicator of development1–4. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prioritize progress in education, with a new focus on inequality5–7. Here we model the within-country distribution of years of schooling, and use this model to explore educational inequality since 1970 and to forecast progress towards the education-related 2030 SDG targets. We show that although the world is largely on track to achieve near-universal primary education by 2030, substantial challenges remain in the completion rates for secondary and tertiary education. Globally, the gender gap in schooling had nearly closed by 2018 but gender disparities remained acute in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. It is predicted that, by 2030, females will have achieved significantly higher educational attainment than males in 18 countries. Inequality in education reached a peak globally in 2017 and is projected to decrease steadily up to 2030. The distributions and inequality metrics presented here represent a framework that can be used to track the progress of each country towards the SDG targets and the level of inequality over time. Reducing educational inequality is one way to promote a fairer distribution of human capital and the development of more equitable human societies.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Friedman & Hunter York & Nicholas Graetz & Lauren Woyczynski & Joanna Whisnant & Simon I. Hay & Emmanuela Gakidou, 2020. "Measuring and forecasting progress towards the education-related SDG targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 580(7805), pages 636-639, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:580:y:2020:i:7805:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2198-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2198-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolai Suppa & Sabina Alkire & Ricardo Nogales, 2023. "The many forms of poverty: Analyses of deprivation interlinkages in the developing world," IREA Working Papers 202321, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2021. "Global multidimensional poverty and COVID-19: A decade of progress at risk?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    3. Qinghai Guo & Zhichao He & Dawei Li & Marcin Spyra, 2022. "Analysis of Spatial Patterns and Socioeconomic Activities of Urbanized Rural Areas in Fujian Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, June.
    4. V. A. Alegana & C. Pezzulo & A. J. Tatem & B. Omar & A. Christensen, 2021. "Mapping out-of-school adolescents and youths in low- and middle-income countries," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Huijuan Xiao & Yue Liu & Jingzheng Ren, 2023. "Synergies and trade‐offs across sustainable development goals: A novel method incorporating indirect interactions analysis," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 1135-1148, April.
    6. Alkire, Sabina & Nogales, Ricardo & Quinn, Natalie Naïri & Suppa, Nicolai, 2023. "On track or not? Projecting the global Multidimensional Poverty Index," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    7. Wesselbaum, Dennis & Smith, Michael D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Aiyar, Anaka, 2023. "A food insecurity Kuznets Curve?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Kirsten Stoebenau & Sangeetha Madhavan & Emily Smith‐Greenaway & Heide Jackson, 2021. "Economic Inequality and Divergence in Family Formation in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 887-912, December.
    9. Friedman, Joseph & Calderon-Villarreal, Alhelí & Heggebø, Kristian & Balaj, Mirza & Bambra, Clare & Eikemo, Terje Andreas, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Nordic Paradox: a call to measure the inequality reducing benefits of welfare systems in the wake of the pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    10. Rashmi Rashmi & Bijay Kumar Malik & Sanjay K. Mohanty & Udaya Shankar Mishra & S. V. Subramanian, 2022. "Predictors of the gender gap in household educational spending among school and college-going children in India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Ying Pan & Jin Zhu & Zhongxu Zhao & Zhennan Li & Junxi Wu, 2023. "The dual effects of population migration on the achievement of sustainable development goals in Tibet, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 5931-5947, July.
    12. Keigo Noda & Kazuki Miyai & Kengo Ito & Masateru Senge, 2020. "Effect of Residents’ Involvement with Small Hydropower Projects on Environmental Awareness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-14, July.
    13. Johannes Jakubik & Stefan Feuerriegel, 2022. "Data‐driven allocation of development aid toward sustainable development goals: Evidence from HIV/AIDS," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(6), pages 2739-2756, June.

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