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The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Rustom Antia

    (Emory University)

  • Roland R. Regoes

    (Emory University)

  • Jacob C. Koella

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie)

  • Carl T. Bergstrom

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population1 and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission2. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R0, should exceed one, where R0 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population3. However, an increase in R0, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R0 > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.

Suggested Citation

  • Rustom Antia & Roland R. Regoes & Jacob C. Koella & Carl T. Bergstrom, 2003. "The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 426(6967), pages 658-661, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:426:y:2003:i:6967:d:10.1038_nature02104
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02104
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Alexandros Charitos & Andrea Ballini & Roberto Lovero & Francesca Castellaneta & Marica Colella & Salvatore Scacco & Stefania Cantore & Roberto Arrigoni & Filiberto Mastrangelo & Mario Dioguar, 2022. "Update on COVID-19 and Effectiveness of a Vaccination Campaign in a Global Context," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Faure, Mathieu & Schreiber, Sebastian J., 2015. "Convergence of generalized urn models to non-equilibrium attractors," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(8), pages 3053-3074.
    3. Tobias Brett & Marco Ajelli & Quan-Hui Liu & Mary G Krauland & John J Grefenstette & Willem G van Panhuis & Alessandro Vespignani & John M Drake & Pejman Rohani, 2020. "Detecting critical slowing down in high-dimensional epidemiological systems," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Sabrina Daddar & N. Nirupama, 2015. "The potential of recurrent epidemics and pandemics in a highly mobile global society," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1395-1403, June.
    5. Eager, Eric Alan & Guiver, Chris & Hodgson, Dave & Rebarber, Richard & Stott, Iain & Townley, Stuart, 2014. "Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 88-96.
    6. Tobias S Brett & Pejman Rohani, 2020. "Dynamical footprints enable detection of disease emergence," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Tobias S Brett & Eamon B O’Dea & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Andrew W Park & John M Drake & Pejman Rohani, 2018. "Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Liverani, Marco & Waage, Jeff & Barnett, Tony & Pfeiffer, Dirk U. & Rushton, Jonathan & Rudge, James W. & Loevinsohn, Michael E. & Scoones, Ian & Smith, Richard D. & Cooper, Ben S. & White, Lisa J. & , 2013. "Understanding and managing zoonotic risk in the new livestock industries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 50665, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Renata L. Muylaert & David A. Wilkinson & Tigga Kingston & Paolo D’Odorico & Maria Cristina Rulli & Nikolas Galli & Reju Sam John & Phillip Alviola & David T. S. Hayman, 2023. "Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Seth Blumberg & James O Lloyd-Smith, 2013. "Inference of R0 and Transmission Heterogeneity from the Size Distribution of Stuttering Chains," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, May.
    11. Daria Sikorska & Piotr Sikorski & Piotr Archiciński & Jarosław Chormański & Richard J. Hopkins, 2019. "You Can’t See the Woods for the Trees: Invasive Acer negundo L. in Urban Riparian Forests Harms Biodiversity and Limits Recreation Activity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-16, October.

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