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Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France

Author

Listed:
  • Tamara Ben-Ari

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Julien Boé

    (Université de Toulouse, CERFACS/CNRS)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement)

  • Remi Lecerf

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Marijn Van der Velde

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • David Makowski

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

Abstract

In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamara Ben-Ari & Julien Boé & Philippe Ciais & Remi Lecerf & Marijn Van der Velde & David Makowski, 2018. "Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-04087-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04087-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Zampieri & Andrea Toreti & Andrej Ceglar & Pierluca De Palma & Thomas Chatzopoulos, 2020. "Analysing the resilience of the European commodity production system with PyResPro, the Python Production Resilience package," Papers 2006.08976, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    2. Dardonville, Manon & Bockstaller, Christian & Villerd, Jean & Therond, Olivier, 2022. "Resilience of agricultural systems: biodiversity-based systems are stable, while intensified ones are resistant and high-yielding," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Fraisse, Clyde W. & Bashyal, Mahesh & Mulvaney, Michael J. & Seepaul, Ramdeo & Zientarski Karrei, Mauricio A. & Iboyi, Joseph Enye & Perondi, Daniel & Cerbaro, Vinicius, 2022. "Brassica carinata as an off-season crop in the southeastern USA: Determining optimum sowing dates based on climate risks and potential effects on summer crop yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. van der Velde, Marijn & Biavetti, Irene & El-Aydam, Mohamed & Niemeyer, Stefan & Santini, Fabien & van den Berg, Maurits, 2019. "Use and relevance of European Union crop monitoring and yield forecasts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 224-230.
    5. Wu, Bingfang & Ma, Zonghan & Boken, Vijendra K. & Zeng, Hongwei & Shang, Jiali & Igor, Savin & Wang, Jinxia & Yan, Nana, 2022. "Regional differences in the performance of drought mitigation measures in 12 major wheat-growing regions of the world," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    6. Bousebata, Meryem & Enjolras, Geoffroy & Girard, Stéphane, 2020. "The dependence structure between yields and prices: A copula-based model of French farm income," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304313, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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