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Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere

Author

Listed:
  • Chunli Dai

    (University of Florida)

  • Melissa K. Ward Jones

    (University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Jurjen van der Sluijs

    (Government of Northwest Territories)

  • Nina Nesterova

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam)

  • Ian M. Howat

    (The Ohio State University)

  • Anna K. Liljedahl

    (Woodwell Climate Research Center)

  • Bretwood Higman

    (Ground Truth Alaska)

  • Jeffrey T. Freymueller

    (Michigan State University)

  • Steven V. Kokelj

    (Government of Northwest Territories)

  • Sindhura Sriram

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturbance areas undergoing RTS ( ≥10,000 m2) for the Northern Hemisphere. Using DEM time-series analysis and deep learning, we retrieve a total of 2747 disturbance areas undergoing active RTS with a total volume loss of (317.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3 between 2012 and 2022. Here we show that climatic drivers of RTS activity exhibit latitudinal and regional variations, specifically, the number of precipitation-driven RTS decreases linearly as latitudes increase, whereas temperature-driven RTS increases sharply. Finally, we estimate that 96% of detected RTS thawed ~1.95 × 10–3 Pg carbon per year, equivalent to ~0.2% of annual gradual thaw emission estimates. Our results highlight the complexity of regional RTS dynamics and the importance of high resolution, long-term monitoring efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunli Dai & Melissa K. Ward Jones & Jurjen van der Sluijs & Nina Nesterova & Ian M. Howat & Anna K. Liljedahl & Bretwood Higman & Jeffrey T. Freymueller & Steven V. Kokelj & Sindhura Sriram, 2025. "Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62017-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62017-0
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