IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-29011-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Cheng

    (Peking University
    University of Rochester)

  • Carmala Garzione

    (University of Rochester
    Rochester Institute of Technology
    University of Arizona)

  • Xiangzhong Li

    (Yunnan University
    Chinese Academy of Science)

  • Ulrich Salzmann

    (Northumbria University)

  • Florian Schwarz

    (Northumbria University)

  • Alan M. Haywood

    (University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane)

  • Julia Tindall

    (University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane)

  • Junsheng Nie

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Lin Li

    (University of Arizona)

  • Lin Wang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Benjamin W. Abbott

    (Brigham Young University)

  • Ben Elliott

    (University of California)

  • Weiguo Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Science)

  • Deepshikha Upadhyay

    (University of California)

  • Alexandrea Arnold

    (University of California)

  • Aradhna Tripati

    (University of California)

Abstract

Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ47-T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ47-T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Cheng & Carmala Garzione & Xiangzhong Li & Ulrich Salzmann & Florian Schwarz & Alan M. Haywood & Julia Tindall & Junsheng Nie & Lin Li & Lin Wang & Benjamin W. Abbott & Ben Elliott & Weiguo Liu &, 2022. "Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29011-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29011-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29011-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-29011-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Y. L. Shur & M. T. Jorgenson, 2007. "Patterns of permafrost formation and degradation in relation to climate and ecosystems," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 7-19, January.
    2. Amelie Lindgren & Gustaf Hugelius & Peter Kuhry & Torben R. Christensen & Jef Vandenberghe, 2016. "GIS‐based Maps and Area Estimates of Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Extent during the Last Glacial Maximum," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 6-16, January.
    3. Ulrike Herzschuh & H. John B. Birks & Thomas Laepple & Andrei Andreev & Martin Melles & Julie Brigham-Grette, 2016. "Glacial legacies on interglacial vegetation at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition in NE Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, September.
    4. Alan M. Haywood & Harry J. Dowsett & Aisling M. Dolan, 2016. "Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Z. T. Guo & William F. Ruddiman & Q. Z. Hao & H. B. Wu & Y. S. Qiao & R. X. Zhu & S. Z. Peng & J. J. Wei & B. Y. Yuan & T. S. Liu, 2002. "Onset of Asian desertification by 22 Myr ago inferred from loess deposits in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6877), pages 159-163, March.
    6. Hanlin Wang & Huayu Lu & Lin Zhao & Hongyan Zhang & Fang Lei & Yichao Wang, 2019. "Asian monsoon rainfall variation during the Pliocene forced by global temperature change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Boris K. Biskaborn & Sharon L. Smith & Jeannette Noetzli & Heidrun Matthes & Gonçalo Vieira & Dmitry A. Streletskiy & Philippe Schoeneich & Vladimir E. Romanovsky & Antoni G. Lewkowicz & Andrey Abramo, 2019. "Permafrost is warming at a global scale," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan Pedro Rodríguez-López & Chihua Wu & Tatiana A. Vishnivetskaya & Julian B. Murton & Wenqiang Tang & Chao Ma, 2022. "Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Qing Yan & Lewis A. Owen & Ting Wei & Philip D. Hughes & Xiaohan Kong & Nanxuan Jiang & Jinzhe Zhang & Zhongshi Zhang & Huijun Wang, 2025. "Regime shift to extensive valley glaciations over High Mountain Asia during the Early-Middle Pleistocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Guibiao Yang & Zhihu Zheng & Benjamin W. Abbott & David Olefeldt & Christian Knoblauch & Yutong Song & Luyao Kang & Shuqi Qin & Yunfeng Peng & Yuanhe Yang, 2023. "Characteristics of methane emissions from alpine thermokarst lakes on the Tibetan Plateau," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Xinwei Yan & Xu Zhang & Bo Liu & Huw T. Mithan & John Hellstrom & Sophie Nuber & Russell Drysdale & Junjie Wu & Fangyuan Lin & Ning Zhao & Yuao Zhang & Wengang Kang & Jianbao Liu, 2025. "Asynchronicity of deglacial permafrost thawing controlled by millennial-scale climate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Ao & Eelco J. Rohling & Ran Zhang & Andrew P. Roberts & Ann E. Holbourn & Jean-Baptiste Ladant & Guillaume Dupont-Nivet & Wolfgang Kuhnt & Peng Zhang & Feng Wu & Mark J. Dekkers & Qingsong Liu & , 2021. "Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Georgii A. Alexandrov & Veronika A. Ginzburg & Gregory E. Insarov & Anna A. Romanovskaya, 2021. "CMIP6 model projections leave no room for permafrost to persist in Western Siberia under the SSP5-8.5 scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Ran Feng & Tripti Bhattacharya & Bette L. Otto-Bliesner & Esther C. Brady & Alan M. Haywood & Julia C. Tindall & Stephen J. Hunter & Ayako Abe-Ouchi & Wing-Le Chan & Masa Kageyama & Camille Contoux & , 2022. "Past terrestrial hydroclimate sensitivity controlled by Earth system feedbacks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Juan Pedro Rodríguez-López & Chihua Wu & Tatiana A. Vishnivetskaya & Julian B. Murton & Wenqiang Tang & Chao Ma, 2022. "Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Hongming He & Claudio O. Delang & Jie Zhou & Yu Li & Wenming He, 2021. "Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Ying Guo & Shuai Liu & Lisha Qiu & Chengcheng Zhang & Wei Shan, 2024. "Spatial stratified heterogeneity analysis of field scale permafrost in Northeast China based on optimal parameters-based geographical detector," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-22, February.
    7. Hongwei Wang & Huijun Jin & Tao Che & Xiaoying Li & Liyun Dai & Yuan Qi & Chunlin Huang & Ruixia He & Jinlong Zhang & Rui Yang & Dongliang Luo & Xiaoying Jin, 2024. "Influences of Snow Cover on the Thermal Regimes of Xing'an Permafrost in Northeast China in 1960s–2010s," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 188-201, April.
    8. Felix C. Nwaishi & Matthew Q. Morison & Brandon Van Huizen & Myroslava Khomik & Richard M. Petrone & Merrin L. Macrae, 2020. "Growing season CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration dynamics among thawing and intact permafrost landforms in the Western Hudson Bay lowlands," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 509-523, October.
    9. Clare B Gaffey & Narissa Bax & Naomi Krauzig & Kévin Tougeron, 2024. "A call to strengthen international collaboration to assess climate change effects in polar regions," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(10), pages 1-25, October.
    10. Stepan Prokopievich Varlamov & Yuri Borisovich Skachkov & Pavel Nikolaevich Skryabin, 2021. "Long-Term Variability in Ground Thermal State in Central Yakutia’s Tuymaada Valley," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    11. Eirini Makopoulou & Alix Varnajot, 2025. "Permafrost degradation-induced risks for nature-based tourism in the Arctic – case from the Yukon," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-9, May.
    12. Ping Lu & Jiangping Han, 2025. "Remote Sensing for Identification and Mapping of Thermokarst Landforms: A Review," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 329-342, June.
    13. Xiangdong Zhao & Naihua Xue & Hu Yang & Daran Zheng & Jungang Peng & Joost Frieling & David Vleeschouwer & Xuewu Fu & Wanglu Jia & Yanan Fang & Sha Li & Meng Wang & Xianye Zhao & Qiang Wang & Haichun , 2025. "Climate–carbon-cycle interactions and spatial heterogeneity of the late Triassic Carnian pluvial episode," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Jannik Martens & Birgit Wild & Igor Semiletov & Oleg V. Dudarev & Örjan Gustafsson, 2022. "Circum-Arctic release of terrestrial carbon varies between regions and sources," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Oona Leppiniemi & Olli Karjalainen & Juha Aalto & Miska Luoto & Jan Hjort, 2025. "Environmental Drivers of Palsa and Peat Plateau Occurrences: A Regional Comparison Across the Northern Hemisphere," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 37-50, January.
    16. Stewart S. R. Jamieson & Neil Ross & Guy J. G. Paxman & Fiona J. Clubb & Duncan A. Young & Shuai Yan & Jamin Greenbaum & Donald D. Blankenship & Martin J. Siegert, 2023. "An ancient river landscape preserved beneath the East Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Jean E. Holloway & Antoni G. Lewkowicz & Thomas A. Douglas & Xiaoying Li & Merritt R. Turetsky & Jennifer L. Baltzer & Huijun Jin, 2020. "Impact of wildfire on permafrost landscapes: A review of recent advances and future prospects," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 371-382, July.
    18. Andreas Kääb & Julie Røste, 2024. "Rock glaciers across the United States predominantly accelerate coincident with rise in air temperatures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. Simon Zwieback & Mark McClernan & Mikhail Kanevskiy & Mark T. Jorgenson & Donald A. Walker & Qianyu Chang & Helena Bergstedt & Horacio Toniolo & Vladimir E. Romanovsky & Franz J. Meyer, 2023. "Disparate permafrost terrain changes after a large flood observed from space," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(4), pages 451-466, October.
    20. Chengcheng Zhang & Min Ma & Wei Shan & Ying Guo, 2024. "Process and numerical simulation of landslide sliding caused by permafrost degradation and seasonal precipitation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(6), pages 5429-5458, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-29011-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.