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Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Bastin

    (Université de Liège)

  • Nicolas Latte

    (Université de Liège)

  • Jan Bogaert

    (Université de Liège)

  • Claude A. Garcia

    (BFH-HAFL
    ETH Zurich)

  • Fabio Berzaghi

    (World Maritime University
    UMR - Commissariat a l’energie atomique (CEA))

  • Fernando T. Maestre

    (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology)

  • Jens-Christian Svenning

    (Aarhus University)

  • Emeline Assede

    (Université de Parakou
    University of Pretoria)

  • Sabas Barima

    (Université Jean Lorougnon Guédé)

  • Timothée Besisa

    (Université de Liège
    Ecole Régionale Post-Universitaire d’Aménagement et Gestion Intégrés des Forêts et Territoires Tropicaux (ERAIFT))

  • Samuel Bouchoms

    (Université de Liège)

  • Thomas W. Crowther

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Thalès Haulleville

    (Faculty of Bioscience Engineering)

  • Hugo Lame

    (Université de Liège)

  • Pauline Depoortere

    (Université de Liège)

  • Marc Dufrêne

    (Université de Liège)

  • Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke

    (Louis Bolk Institute)

  • Simon Lhoest

    (Université de Liège)

  • Gregory Mahy

    (Université de Liège)

  • Christian Messier

    (Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)
    Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO))

  • Danilo Mollicone

    (UN-FAO Climate Change Office)

  • Felana Nantenaina Ramalason

    (Université de Liège
    Université d’Antananarivo)

  • Marc Peaucelle

    (Université de Bordeaux)

  • Antoine Plumacker

    (Université de Liège)

  • Fabien Quétier

    (Rewilding Europe)

  • Olivia Rakotondrasoa

    (Université d’Antananarivo)

  • Kouagou Raoul Sambieni

    (Université de Liège
    Faculty of Architecture)

  • Ben Sparrow

    (The University of Adelaide)

  • Yegor Tarelkin

    (Université de Liège)

  • Yannick Useni Sikuzani

    (Université de Lubumbashi)

  • Arthur Linden

    (Université de Liège)

  • Philippe Lejeune

    (Université de Liège)

Abstract

Preserving and restoring terrestrial ecosystems is essential to preventing the decline of life on Earth. To guide global conservation efforts, we present a detailed counterfactual map showing Earth’s natural tree, short vegetation, and bare ground cover. This map accounts for environmental filtering along with realistic scenarios of fire frequency and wildlife herbivory. The most likely scenario suggests 43% (5669 ± 74 Mha) of land could support trees, 39% (5183 ± 86 Mha) shrubs and grasses, and 18% (2352 ± 59 Mha) bare ground. Adjustments in fire and herbivory could shift a minimum of 675 Mha of land, stressing the importance of considering alternative outcomes when restoring a landscape. Our findings also suggest that adjustments in fire frequency and wildlife herbivory could have a greater impact on natural vegetation than expected climate changes by 2050, highlighting decision-makers’ responsibility to guide conservation and restoration toward a sustainable and biodiverse future.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Bastin & Nicolas Latte & Jan Bogaert & Claude A. Garcia & Fabio Berzaghi & Fernando T. Maestre & Jens-Christian Svenning & Emeline Assede & Sabas Barima & Timothée Besisa & Samuel Boucho, 2025. "Global alternatives of natural vegetation cover," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-61520-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-61520-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanna Meyer & Edzer Pebesma, 2022. "Machine learning-based global maps of ecological variables and the challenge of assessing them," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-4, December.
    2. Simon L. Lewis & Charlotte E. Wheeler & Edward T. A. Mitchard & Alexander Koch, 2019. "Restoring natural forests is the best way to remove atmospheric carbon," Nature, Nature, vol. 568(7750), pages 25-28, April.
    3. Chahan M. Kropf & Lisa Vaterlaus & David N. Bresch & Loïc Pellissier, 2025. "Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 92-100, January.
    4. Tomislav Hengl & Jorge Mendes de Jesus & Gerard B M Heuvelink & Maria Ruiperez Gonzalez & Milan Kilibarda & Aleksandar Blagotić & Wei Shangguan & Marvin N Wright & Xiaoyuan Geng & Bernhard Bauer-Marsc, 2017. "SoilGrids250m: Global gridded soil information based on machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-40, February.
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