IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-59261-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

Author

Listed:
  • Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Ahad Hasan Tanim

    (University of South Carolina
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL))

  • Audrika Nahian

    (Jackson State University)

  • Sadik Khan

    (Jackson State University)

  • Erfan Goharian

    (University of South Carolina
    Program Manager, RESPEC)

  • Jasim Imran

    (University of South Carolina)

Abstract

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem & Ahad Hasan Tanim & Audrika Nahian & Sadik Khan & Erfan Goharian & Jasim Imran, 2025. "How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59261-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59261-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Scolobig & B. Marchi & M. Borga, 2012. "The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 499-520, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pilar Lopez-Llompart & G. Mathias Kondolf, 2016. "Encroachments in floodways of the Mississippi River and Tributaries Project," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 513-542, March.
    2. Jones, Lindsey & d'Errico, Marco, 2019. "Whose resilience matters? Like-for-like comparison of objective and subjective evaluations of resilience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Nicolás Bronfman & Pamela Cisternas & Esperanza López-Vázquez & Luis Cifuentes, 2016. "Trust and risk perception of natural hazards: implications for risk preparedness in Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 307-327, March.
    4. Chang, Chiung-Ting, 2017. "Risk factors associated with flying in adverse weather: From the passengers' point of view," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 68-75.
    5. Vieri Tarchiani & Giovanni Massazza & Maurizio Rosso & Maurizio Tiepolo & Alessandro Pezzoli & Mohamed Housseini Ibrahim & Gaptia Lawan Katiellou & Paolo Tamagnone & Tiziana De Filippis & Leandro Rocc, 2020. "Community and Impact Based Early Warning System for Flood Risk Preparedness: The Experience of the Sirba River in Niger," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Jones, Lindsey & D'Errico, Marco, 2019. "Whose resilience matters?: like-for-like comparisons of objective and subjective measures of resilience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101529, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Julita Gil Cuesta & Joris Adriaan Frank Van Loenhout & Maria Da Conceição Colaço & Debarati Guha-Sapir, 2017. "General Population Knowledge about Extreme Heat: A Cross-Sectional Survey in Lisbon and Madrid," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, January.
    8. Lai, Alessandro & Leoni, Giulia & Stacchezzini, Riccardo, 2014. "The socializing effects of accounting in flood recovery," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 579-603.
    9. Judy Lawrence & Dorothee Quade & Julia Becker, 2014. "Integrating the effects of flood experience on risk perception with responses to changing climate risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1773-1794, December.
    10. Eoin O'Neill & Finbarr Brereton & Harutyun Shahumyan & J. Peter Clinch, 2016. "The Impact of Perceived Flood Exposure on Flood‐Risk Perception: The Role of Distance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2158-2186, November.
    11. Nicolás C. Bronfman & Pamela C. Cisternas & Esperanza López-Vázquez & Luis A. Cifuentes, 2016. "Trust and risk perception of natural hazards: implications for risk preparedness in Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 307-327, March.
    12. Vladimir M. Cvetković & Giulia Roder & Adem Öcal & Paolo Tarolli & Slavoljub Dragićević, 2018. "The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviors towards Flood Risk in Serbia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Michal Titko & Jozef Ristvej & Zenon Zamiar, 2021. "Population Preparedness for Disasters and Extreme Weather Events as a Predictor of Building a Resilient Society: The Slovak Republic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-24, February.
    14. Richert, Claire & Erdlenbruch, Katrin & Grelot, Frédéric, 2019. "The impact of flood management policies on individual adaptation actions: Insights from a French case study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Ming Zhong & Lu Xiao & Qian Zhang & Tao Jiang, 2021. "Risk Perception, Risk Communication, and Mitigation Actions of Flash Floods: Results from a Survey in Three Types of Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-23, November.
    16. Yibin Ao & Xun Zhou & Feng Ji & Yan Wang & Linchuan Yang & Qiongmei Wang & Igor Martek, 2020. "Flood disaster preparedness: experience and attitude of rural residents in Sichuan, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2591-2618, December.
    17. Yi Ge & Guangfei Yang & Xiaotao Wang & Wen Dou & Xueer Lu & Jie Mao, 2021. "Understanding risk perception from floods: a case study from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 3119-3140, February.
    18. Reeko Watanabe & Tsunemi Watanabe & Kyohei Wakui, 2021. "Acceptance of Main Power Generation Sources among Japan’s Undergraduate Students: The Roles of Knowledge, Experience, Trust, and Perceived Risk and Benefit," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-22, November.
    19. Giacomo Bernello & Elena Mondino & Lucia Bortolini, 2022. "People’s Perception of Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation: The Case of Veneto Region (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-13, April.
    20. Ana Camarasa-Belmonte & D. Butrón, 2015. "Estimation of flood risk thresholds in Mediterranean areas using rainfall indicators: case study of Valencian Region (Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1243-1266, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59261-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.