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How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster

Author

Listed:
  • Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Ahad Hasan Tanim

    (University of South Carolina
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL))

  • Audrika Nahian

    (Jackson State University)

  • Sadik Khan

    (Jackson State University)

  • Erfan Goharian

    (University of South Carolina
    Program Manager, RESPEC)

  • Jasim Imran

    (University of South Carolina)

Abstract

On September 11, 2023, Storm Daniel unleashed unprecedented rainfall over the Wadi Derna watershed, triggering one of the most devastating floods in modern history, striking Derna, a coastal city in Libya. This study reconstructs the disaster using an integrated modeling approach that combines satellite imagery, hydrologic, hydraulic, and geotechnical simulations, machine learning, eyewitness accounts, and digital elevation data to assess the impact of cascading dam failures. Our findings reveal that the region’s dams, even if structurally sound, would have provided minimal protection against the extreme runoff. However, their failure unleashed a destructive surge wave, amplifying the disaster’s magnitude and devastation. Here, we show that the collapse of aging flood control infrastructures, compounded by inadequate risk assessment and emergency preparedness, dramatically escalated the disaster’s impact. Our findings underscore the urgent need for systematic dam safety evaluations, enhanced flood forecasting, and adaptive risk management strategies that address climate extremes and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayman Mokhtar Nemnem & Ahad Hasan Tanim & Audrika Nahian & Sadik Khan & Erfan Goharian & Jasim Imran, 2025. "How extreme rainfall and failing dams unleashed the Derna flood disaster," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59261-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59261-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Scolobig & B. Marchi & M. Borga, 2012. "The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 499-520, September.
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