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Climate change is projected to shrink phylogenetic endemism of Neotropical frogs

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  • Gabriela Alves-Ferreira

    (Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz
    The University of Texas)

  • Neander M. Heming

    (Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz)

  • Daniela Talora

    (Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz)

  • Timothy H. Keitt

    (The University of Texas)

  • Mirco Solé

    (Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz
    Herpetology Section)

  • Kelly R. Zamudio

    (The University of Texas)

Abstract

Climate change is widely recognized as one of the main threats to biodiversity1 and predicting its consequences is critical to conservation efforts. A wide range of studies have evaluated the effects of future climate using taxon-based metrics3,4, but few studies to date have applied a phylogenetic approach to forecast these impacts. Here, we show that future climate change is expected to significantly modify not only species richness, but also phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism of Neotropical frogs. Our results show that by 2050, the ranges of 42.20% (n = 213) of species are projected to shrink and the range of 1.71% of species (n = 9) are projected to disappear. Furthermore, we find that areas of high SR and PD are not always congruent with areas of high PE. Our study highlights the projected impacts of climate change on Neotropical frog diversity and identifies target areas for conservation efforts that consider not just species numbers, but also distinct evolutionary histories.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriela Alves-Ferreira & Neander M. Heming & Daniela Talora & Timothy H. Keitt & Mirco Solé & Kelly R. Zamudio, 2025. "Climate change is projected to shrink phylogenetic endemism of Neotropical frogs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59036-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59036-2
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