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Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under future land-use-change scenarios

Author

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  • Ryan P. Powers

    (Yale University)

  • Walter Jetz

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Habitat transformations caused by human land-use change are considered major drivers of ongoing biodiversity loss1–3, and their impact on biodiversity is expected to increase further this century4–6. Here, we used global decadal land-use projections to year 2070 for a range of shared socioeconomic pathways, which are linked to particular representative concentration pathways, to evaluate potential losses in range-wide suitable habitat and extinction risks for approximately 19,400 species of amphibians, birds and mammals. Substantial declines in suitable habitat are identified for species worldwide, with approximately 1,700 species expected to become imperilled due to land-use change alone. National stewardship for species highlights certain South American, Southeast Asian and African countries that are in particular need of proactive conservation planning. These geographically explicit projections and model workflows embedded in the Map of Life infrastructure are provided to facilitate the scrutiny, improvements and future updates needed for an ongoing and readily updated assessment of changing biodiversity. These forward-looking assessments and informatics tools are intended to support national conservation action and policies for addressing climate change and land-use change impacts on biodiversity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan P. Powers & Walter Jetz, 2019. "Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under future land-use-change scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 323-329, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0406-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0406-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Christianson, Anne B. & Montgomery, Rebecca & Fleischman, Forrest & Nelson, Kristen C., 2022. "Exploring wildlife disservices and conservation in the context of ecosystem-based adaptation: A case study in the Mt. Elgon region, Uganda," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Chunrong Mi & Liang Ma & Mengyuan Yang & Xinhai Li & Shai Meiri & Uri Roll & Oleksandra Oskyrko & Daniel Pincheira-Donoso & Lilly P. Harvey & Daniel Jablonski & Barbod Safaei-Mahroo & Hanyeh Ghaffari , 2023. "Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Stephanie D. Maier & Jan Paul Lindner & Javier Francisco, 2019. "Conceptual Framework for Biodiversity Assessments in Global Value Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-34, March.
    4. Xuebin Zhang & Litang Yao & Jun Luo & Wenjuan Liang, 2022. "Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Jason Alexandra, 2022. "Designer Ecosystems for the Anthropocene—Deliberately Creating Novel Ecosystems in Cultural Landscapes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-12, March.
    6. Olesia Havryliuk & Vira Hovorukha & Oleksandr Savitsky & Volodymyr Trilis & Antonina Kalinichenko & Agnieszka Dołhańczuk-Śródka & Daniel Janecki & Oleksandr Tashyrev, 2021. "Anaerobic Degradation of Environmentally Hazardous Aquatic Plant Pistia stratiotes and Soluble Cu(II) Detoxification by Methanogenic Granular Microbial Preparation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, June.
    7. Fangjie Pan & Nannan Shu & Qing Wan & Qi Huang, 2023. "Land Use Function Transition and Associated Ecosystem Service Value Effects Based on Production–Living–Ecological Space: A Case Study in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, January.
    8. James P. Herrera & Jean Yves Rabezara & Ny Anjara Fifi Ravelomanantsoa & Miranda Metz & Courtni France & Ajilé Owens & Michelle Pender & Charles L. Nunn & Randall A. Kramer, 2021. "Food insecurity related to agricultural practices and household characteristics in rural communities of northeast Madagascar," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1393-1405, December.
    9. Drechsler, Martin, 2023. "Ecological and economic trade-offs between amount and spatial aggregation of conservation and the cost-effective design of coordination incentives," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    10. Kong, Xuesong & Fu, Mengxue & Zhao, Xiang & Wang, Jing & Jiang, Ping, 2022. "Ecological effects of land-use change on two sides of the Hu Huanyong Line in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Ziqi Meng & Jinwei Dong & Erle C. Ellis & Graciela Metternicht & Yuanwei Qin & Xiao-Peng Song & Sara Löfqvist & Rachael D. Garrett & Xiaopeng Jia & Xiangming Xiao, 2023. "Post-2020 biodiversity framework challenged by cropland expansion in protected areas," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 758-768, July.
    12. Junfang Jin & Shuyan Yin & Hanmin Yin & Xin Bai, 2023. "Eco–Environmental Effects of “Production–Living–Ecological” Space Land Use Changes and Recommendations for Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of the Weibei Dryland in Shaanxi Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, May.
    13. Gotor, Elisabetta & Nedumaran, Swamikannu & Cenacchi, Nicola & Tran, Nhuong & Dunston, Shahnila & Dermawan, Ahmad & Valera, Harold Glenn & Wiberg, David & Tesfaye, Kindie & Mausch, Kai, 2021. "Land and Water Systems: Looking to the future and a more resilient and sustainable society and environment," SocArXiv ajs6q, Center for Open Science.
    14. Wenxing Du & Yuxia Wang & Dingyi Qian & Xiao Lyu, 2022. "Process and Eco-Environment Impact of Land Use Function Transition under the Perspective of “Production-Living-Ecological” Spaces—Case of Haikou City, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-21, December.
    15. Barnabas H. Daru & T. Jonathan Davies & Charles G. Willis & Emily K. Meineke & Argo Ronk & Martin Zobel & Meelis Pärtel & Alexandre Antonelli & Charles C. Davis, 2021. "Widespread homogenization of plant communities in the Anthropocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Davor Mance & Katarina Krunić & Diana Mance, 2021. "Protecting Species by Promoting Protected Areas and Human Development—A Panel Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, October.
    17. Coppée, Thomas & Paquet, Jean-Yves & Titeux, Nicolas & Dufrêne, Marc, 2022. "Temporal transferability of species abundance models to study the changes of breeding bird species based on land cover changes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    18. Feldt, Tobias & Karg, Hanna & Kadaouré, Ibrahima & Bessert, Leon & Schlecht, Eva, 2020. "Growing struggle over rising demand: How land use change and complex farmer-grazier conflicts impact grazing management in the Western Highlands of Cameroon," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Yayan Lu & Junhong Zhao & Jianwei Qi & Tianyu Rong & Zhi Wang & Zhaoping Yang & Fang Han, 2022. "Monitoring the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Habitat Quality and Its Driving Factors Based on the Coupled NDVI-InVEST Model: A Case Study from the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    20. Bingkui Qiu & Jinjiang Yao & Siyu Han & Zhe Zhu, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Habitat Quality for Bird Species in China Caused by Land Use Change during 1995–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-12, August.
    21. Chunsheng Wu, 2022. "Study on the Spatial Differences in Land-Use Change and Driving Factors in Tibet," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    22. Lintao Liu & Shouchao Yu & Hengjia Zhang & Yong Wang & Chao Liang, 2023. "Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.
    23. Shilei Wang & Yanbo Qu & Weiying Zhao & Mei Guan & Zongli Ping, 2022. "Evolution and Optimization of Territorial-Space Structure Based on Regional Function Orientation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, March.

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