IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-42115-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun-Su Jo

    (Chonnam National University)

  • Yoo-Geun Ham

    (Chonnam National University)

Abstract

Sea surface temperature variability over the north tropical Atlantic (NTA) and over the subtropical northeast Pacific (SNP), which is referred to as the North Pacific Meridional Mode, during the early boreal spring is known to trigger El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The future changes of the influence of those northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO are usually examined separately, even though their joint impacts significantly differ from the individual impacts. Here, we show that the impacts of both NTA and SNP on ENSO significantly increase under greenhouse warming and that the degrees of enhancement are closely linked. The wetter mean state over the off-equatorial eastern Pacific is a single contributor that controls the impacts of both NTA and SNP on ENSO. The enhanced joint impacts of the northwestern hemispheric precursors on ENSO increase the occurrences of extreme El Niño events and the ENSO predictability under greenhouse warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham, 2023. "Enhanced joint impact of western hemispheric precursors increases extreme El Niño frequency under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42115-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42115-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42115-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-42115-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoo-Geun Ham & Jong-Seong Kug & Jun-Young Choi & Fei-Fei Jin & Masahiro Watanabe, 2018. "Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 64-69, January.
    2. Wenjun Zhang & Feng Jiang & Malte F. Stuecker & Fei-Fei Jin & Axel Timmermann, 2021. "Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Matthew Collins & Richard E. Chandler & Peter M. Cox & John M. Huthnance & Jonathan Rougier & David B. Stephenson, 2012. "Quantifying future climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 403-409, June.
    4. Lei Wang & Jin-Yi Yu & Houk Paek, 2017. "Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Attílio, Luccas Assis & Faria, João Ricardo & Rodrigues, Mauro, 2023. "Does monetary policy impact CO2 emissions? A GVAR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. A. Lopez & E. Suckling & F. Otto & A. Lorenz & D. Rowlands & M. Allen, 2015. "Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 15-29, September.
    3. Siying Liu & Ping Chang & Xiuquan Wan & Stephen G. Yeager & Ingo Richter, 2023. "Role of the Maritime Continent in the remote influence of Atlantic Niño on the Pacific," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Martha Butler & Patrick Reed & Karen Fisher-Vanden & Klaus Keller & Thorsten Wagener, 2014. "Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 463-474, December.
    5. Jajcay, Nikola, 2018. "Spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric dynamics," Thesis Commons ar8ks, Center for Open Science.
    6. Bruce Hewitson & Katinka Waagsaether & Jan Wohland & Kate Kloppers & Teizeen Kara, 2017. "Climate information websites: an evolving landscape," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    7. Yumin Liu & Kate Duffy & Jennifer G. Dy & Auroop R. Ganguly, 2023. "Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    8. Luccas Assis Attilio & Joao Ricardo Faria & Mauro Rodrigues, 2022. "Does monetary policy impact CO2 Emissions? A GVAR analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_24, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    9. Thomas R. Mortlock & Jonathan Nott & Ryan Crompton & Valentina Koschatzky, 2023. "A long-term view of tropical cyclone risk in Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 571-588, August.
    10. Muhammad Chrisna Satriagasa & Piyapong Tongdeenok & Naruemol Kaewjampa, 2023. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using SWAT and HEC-RAS Model under CMIP5 Climate Projection in Upper Nan Watershed, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42115-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.