IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-40642-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Author

Listed:
  • Shinto Roose

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    McGill University)

  • R. S. Ajayamohan

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    Institute of Applied Technology)

  • Pallav Ray

    (Florida Institute of Technology)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (University of California San Diego)

  • C. T. Sabeerali

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    India Meteorological Department)

  • M. Mohapatra

    (India Meteorological Department)

  • S. Taraphdar

    (New York University Abu Dhabi
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • K. Mohanakumar

    (Cochin University of Science and Technology)

  • M. Rajeevan

    (Ministry of Earth Sciences)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinto Roose & R. S. Ajayamohan & Pallav Ray & Shang-Ping Xie & C. T. Sabeerali & M. Mohapatra & S. Taraphdar & K. Mohanakumar & M. Rajeevan, 2023. "Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40642-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40642-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40642-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-40642-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yanluan Lin & Ming Zhao & Minghua Zhang, 2015. "Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, May.
    2. Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Suzana J. Camargo & James P. Kossin & Kevin J. Tory & Michael F. Wehner & Johnny C. L. Chan & Philip J. Klotzbach & Andrew J. Dowdy & Samuel S. Bell & Hamish A. Ra, 2022. "Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 655-661, July.
    3. Hiroyuki Murakami & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Seth Underwood, 2017. "Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 885-889, December.
    4. Suryachandra Rao & Ashish Dhakate & Subodh Saha & Somnath Mahapatra & Hemantkumar Chaudhari & Samir Pokhrel & Sobhan Sahu, 2012. "Why is Indian Ocean warming consistently?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 709-719, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sahil Sharma & Kyung-Ja Ha & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Keith B. Rodgers & Axel Timmermann & Eui-Seok Chung, 2023. "Future Indian Ocean warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Atul Kumar Varma & Neeru Jaiswal & Ayan Das & Mukesh Kumar & Nikhil V. Lele & Rojalin Tripathy & Saroj Maity & Mehul Pandya & Bimal Bhattacharya & Anup Kumar Mandal & M. Jishad & M. Seemanth & Arvind , 2023. "A pathway for multi-stage cyclone-induced hazard tracking—case study for Yaas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 1035-1067, May.
    3. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Brandon W. Kerns & Shuyi S. Chen, 2023. "Compound effects of rain, storm surge, and river discharge on coastal flooding during Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee (2011) in the Mid-Atlantic region: coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model simu," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 693-726, March.
    6. A. D. Rao & Puja Upadhaya & Smita Pandey & Jismy Poulose, 2020. "Simulation of extreme water levels in response to tropical cyclones along the Indian coast: a climate change perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 151-172, January.
    7. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Yasmin Zahan & Rahul Mahanta & P. V. Rajesh & B. N. Goswami, 2021. "Impact of climate change on North-East India (NEI) summer monsoon rainfall," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Kieran Bhatia & Alexander Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel Vecchi & Thomas Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Kevin Hodges & Keith Dixon & Benjamin Bronselaer & Carolyn Whitlock, 2022. "A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    10. Erdem Karaca & Hesaam Aslani, 2016. "Review of two Japan Typhoon catastrophe models for commercial and industrial properties," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 19-40, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40642-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.