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Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature

Author

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  • Yanluan Lin

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University)

  • Ming Zhao

    (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Minghua Zhang

    (School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University)

Abstract

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanluan Lin & Ming Zhao & Minghua Zhang, 2015. "Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-7, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:6:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms7591
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7591
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    Cited by:

    1. Brandon W. Kerns & Shuyi S. Chen, 2023. "Compound effects of rain, storm surge, and river discharge on coastal flooding during Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee (2011) in the Mid-Atlantic region: coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model simu," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 693-726, March.
    2. Shinto Roose & R. S. Ajayamohan & Pallav Ray & Shang-Ping Xie & C. T. Sabeerali & M. Mohapatra & S. Taraphdar & K. Mohanakumar & M. Rajeevan, 2023. "Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Erdem Karaca & Hesaam Aslani, 2016. "Review of two Japan Typhoon catastrophe models for commercial and industrial properties," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 19-40, August.

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