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Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate

Author

Listed:
  • Shuyu Wang

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Xiaohui Ma

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Shenghui Zhou

    (Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Hong Wang

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Zhili Tang

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Guangzhi Xu

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Zhao Jing

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Zhaohui Chen

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Bolan Gan

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

Abstract

Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models’ ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuyu Wang & Xiaohui Ma & Shenghui Zhou & Lixin Wu & Hong Wang & Zhili Tang & Guangzhi Xu & Zhao Jing & Zhaohui Chen & Bolan Gan, 2023. "Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38980-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-François Lamarque & G. Kyle & Malte Meinshausen & Keywan Riahi & Steven Smith & Detlef Vuuren & Andrew Conley & Francis Vitt, 2011. "Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 191-212, November.
    2. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
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