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Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries

Author

Listed:
  • Garyfallos Konstantinoudis

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health)

  • Michela Cameletti

    (University of Bergamo)

  • Virgilio Gómez-Rubio

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Inmaculada León Gómez

    (Institute of Health Carlos III
    Institute of Health Carlos III)

  • Monica Pirani

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health)

  • Gianluca Baio

    (University College London)

  • Amparo Larrauri

    (Institute of Health Carlos III
    Institute of Health Carlos III)

  • Julien Riou

    (University of Bern)

  • Matthias Egger

    (University of Bern
    University of Bristol)

  • Paolo Vineis

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health)

  • Marta Blangiardo

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health)

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015–2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15–20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Garyfallos Konstantinoudis & Michela Cameletti & Virgilio Gómez-Rubio & Inmaculada León Gómez & Monica Pirani & Gianluca Baio & Amparo Larrauri & Julien Riou & Matthias Egger & Paolo Vineis & Marta Bl, 2022. "Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28157-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28157-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Becchetti, Leonardo & Conzo, Gianluigi & Conzo, Pierluigi & Salustri, Francesco, 2022. "Excess mortality and protected areas during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(12), pages 1269-1276.
    2. Cui Zhang & Dandan Zhang, 2023. "Spatial Interactions and the Spread of COVID-19: A Network Perspective," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 383-405, June.
    3. Tamás Hajdu & Judit Krekó & Csaba G. Tóth, 2023. "Inequalities in regional excess mortality and life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2316, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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