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Impacts of social distancing policies on mobility and COVID-19 case growth in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory A. Wellenius

    (Google, Inc.
    Boston University School of Public Health)

  • Swapnil Vispute

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Valeria Espinosa

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Alex Fabrikant

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Thomas C. Tsai

    (Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School
    Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Jonathan Hennessy

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Andrew Dai

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Brian Williams

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Krishna Gadepalli

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Adam Boulanger

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Adam Pearce

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Chaitanya Kamath

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Arran Schlosberg

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Catherine Bendebury

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Chinmoy Mandayam

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Charlotte Stanton

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Shailesh Bavadekar

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Christopher Pluntke

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Damien Desfontaines

    (Google, Inc.
    ETH Zurich)

  • Benjamin H. Jacobson

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Zan Armstrong

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Bryant Gipson

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Royce Wilson

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Andrew Widdowson

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Katherine Chou

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Andrew Oplinger

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Tomer Shekel

    (Google, Inc.)

  • Ashish K. Jha

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
    Brown University School of Public Health)

  • Evgeniy Gabrilovich

    (Google, Inc.)

Abstract

Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory A. Wellenius & Swapnil Vispute & Valeria Espinosa & Alex Fabrikant & Thomas C. Tsai & Jonathan Hennessy & Andrew Dai & Brian Williams & Krishna Gadepalli & Adam Boulanger & Adam Pearce & Chait, 2021. "Impacts of social distancing policies on mobility and COVID-19 case growth in the US," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23404-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23404-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Grimalda, Gianluca & Murtin, Fabrice & Pipke, David & Putterman, Louis & Sutter, Matthias, 2023. "The politicized pandemic: Ideological polarization and the behavioral response to COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Roxanne Kovacs & Maurice Dunaiski & Janne Tukiainen, 2023. "The effect of compulsory face mask policies on community mobility in Germany," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(4), pages 1027-1055, October.
    3. Euijune Kim & Dongyeong Jin & Hojune Lee & Min Jiang, 2023. "The economic damage of COVID-19 on regional economies: an application of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to South Korea," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(1), pages 243-268, August.
    4. Patni, Sagar & Srinivasan, Sivaramakrishnan & Suarez, Juan, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on route-level changes in transit demand an analysis of five transit agencies in Florida, USA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Tung, Hans H. & Chang, Teng-Jen & Lin, Ming-Jen, 2022. "Political ideology predicts preventative behaviors and infections amid COVID-19 in democracies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).

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