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Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends

Author

Listed:
  • Roger J. Francey

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Cathy M. Trudinger

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Marcel van der Schoot

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Rachel M. Law

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Paul B. Krummel

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Ray L. Langenfelds

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • L. Paul Steele

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Colin E. Allison

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Ann R. Stavert

    (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research)

  • Robert J. Andres

    (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Christian Rödenbeck

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry)

Abstract

International efforts to limit global warming and ocean acidification aim to slow the growth of atmospheric CO2, guided primarily by national and industry estimates of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Atmospheric verification of emissions is vital but present global inversion methods are inadequate for this purpose. We demonstrate a clear response in atmospheric CO2 coinciding with a sharp 2010 increase in Asian emissions but show persisting slowing mean CO2 growth from 2002/03. Growth and inter-hemispheric concentration difference during the onset and recovery of the Global Financial Crisis support a previous speculation that the reported 2000–2008 emissions surge is an artefact, most simply explained by a cumulative underestimation (∼ 9 Pg C) of 1994–2007 emissions; in this case, post-2000 emissions would track mid-range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. An alternative explanation requires changes in the northern terrestrial land sink that offset anthropogenic emission changes. We suggest atmospheric methods to help resolve this ambiguity.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger J. Francey & Cathy M. Trudinger & Marcel van der Schoot & Rachel M. Law & Paul B. Krummel & Ray L. Langenfelds & L. Paul Steele & Colin E. Allison & Ann R. Stavert & Robert J. Andres & Christian, 2013. "Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 520-524, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate1817
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1817
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Da, Ya-Bin, 2015. "The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1255-1266.
    2. Jia, Ruining & Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili, 2021. "High-speed rail and CO2 emissions in urban China: A spatial difference-in-differences approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Lu, Yuchen & Gao, Yuqiang & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Junrong, 2022. "Can the green finance policy force the green transformation of high-polluting enterprises? A quasi-natural experiment based on “Green Credit Guidelines”," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Liang, Xiaoying & Min Fan, & Xiao, Yuting & Yao, Jing, 2022. "Temporal-spatial characteristics of energy-based carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors during 2004–2019, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    5. Yan, Yu & Huang, Junbing, 2022. "The role of population agglomeration played in China's carbon intensity: A city-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Chen, Yang & Shao, Shuai & Fan, Meiting & Tian, Zhihua & Yang, Lili, 2022. "One man's loss is another's gain: Does clean energy development reduce CO2 emissions in China? Evidence based on the spatial Durbin model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

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