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Asymmetry in the climate–carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions

Author

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  • Kirsten Zickfeld

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Deven Azevedo

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • Sabine Mathesius

    (Simon Fraser University)

  • H. Damon Matthews

    (Concordia University)

Abstract

Negative CO2 emissions are a key mitigation measure in emission scenarios consistent with temperature limits adopted by the Paris Agreement. It is commonly assumed that the climate–carbon cycle response to a negative CO2 emission is equal in magnitude and opposite in sign to the response to an equivalent positive CO2 emission. Here we test the hypothesis that this response is symmetric by forcing an Earth system model with positive and negative CO2 emission pulses of varying magnitude and applied from different climate states. Results indicate that a CO2 emission into the atmosphere is more effective at raising atmospheric CO2 than an equivalent CO2 removal is at lowering it, with the asymmetry increasing with the magnitude of the emission/removal. The findings of this study imply that offsetting positive CO2 emissions with negative emissions of the same magnitude could result in a different climate outcome than avoiding the CO2 emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsten Zickfeld & Deven Azevedo & Sabine Mathesius & H. Damon Matthews, 2021. "Asymmetry in the climate–carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(7), pages 613-617, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01061-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01061-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael S. Diamond & Kelly Wanser & Olivier Boucher, 2023. "“Cooling credits” are not a viable climate solution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-9, July.
    2. Selene Cobo & Ángel Galán-Martín & Victor Tulus & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, 2022. "Human and planetary health implications of negative emissions technologies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Mariliis Lehtveer, 2022. "emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves," Papers 2212.12060, arXiv.org.
    4. Parisa, Zack & Marland, Eric & Sohngen, Brent & Marland, Gregg & Jenkins, Jennifer, 2022. "The time value of carbon storage," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Susan C. Cook-Patton & C. Ronnie Drever & Bronson W. Griscom & Kelley Hamrick & Hamilton Hardman & Timm Kroeger & Pablo Pacheco & Shyla Raghav & Martha Stevenson & Chris Webb & Samantha Yeo & Peter W., 2021. "Protect, manage and then restore lands for climate mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1027-1034, December.
    6. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak & Jarosław Joostberens & Spas D. Kolev, 2022. "Cluster Analysis of the EU-27 Countries in Light of the Guiding Principles of the European Green Deal, with Particular Emphasis on Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Stefano Di Bucchianico & Federica Cappelli, 2021. "Exploring the theoretical link between profitability and luxury emissions," Working Papers PKWP2114, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).

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