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Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Author

Listed:
  • Derek P. Tittensor

    (Dalhousie University
    United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre)

  • Camilla Novaglio

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

  • Cheryl S. Harrison

    (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
    Louisiana State University)

  • Ryan F. Heneghan

    (Queensland University of Technology)

  • Nicolas Barrier

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Daniele Bianchi

    (University of California Los Angeles)

  • Laurent Bopp

    (Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique)

  • Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz

    (Dalhousie University)

  • Gregory L. Britten

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Matthias Büchner

    (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • William W. L. Cheung

    (The University of British Columbia)

  • Villy Christensen

    (The University of British Columbia)

  • Marta Coll

    (Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
    Ecopath International Initiative Research Association)

  • John P. Dunne

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Tyler D. Eddy

    (Memorial University of Newfoundland)

  • Jason D. Everett

    (The University of Queensland
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia
    The University of New South Wales)

  • Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador

    (AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA))

  • Elizabeth A. Fulton

    (University of Tasmania
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Eric D. Galbraith

    (McGill University)

  • Didier Gascuel

    (UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae)

  • Jerome Guiet

    (University of California Los Angeles)

  • Jasmin G. John

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Jason S. Link

    (NOAA Fisheries)

  • Heike K. Lotze

    (Dalhousie University)

  • Olivier Maury

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Juliano Palacios-Abrantes

    (The University of British Columbia
    University of Wisconsin)

  • Colleen M. Petrik

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Hubert Pontavice

    (UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae
    Princeton University)

  • Jonathan Rault

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Anthony J. Richardson

    (The University of Queensland
    Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia)

  • Lynne Shannon

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Yunne-Jai Shin

    (Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS)

  • Jeroen Steenbeek

    (Ecopath International Initiative Research Association)

  • Charles A. Stock

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Julia L. Blanchard

    (University of Tasmania
    University of Tasmania)

Abstract

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Derek P. Tittensor & Camilla Novaglio & Cheryl S. Harrison & Ryan F. Heneghan & Nicolas Barrier & Daniele Bianchi & Laurent Bopp & Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz & Gregory L. Britten & Matthias Büchner & Wil, 2021. "Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(11), pages 973-981, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01173-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Granado, Igor & Hernando, Leticia & Uriondo, Zigor & Fernandes-Salvador, Jose A., 2024. "A fishing route optimization decision support system: The case of the tuna purse seiner," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 718-732.
    2. Angus Atkinson & Axel G. Rossberg & Ursula Gaedke & Gary Sprules & Ryan F. Heneghan & Stratos Batziakas & Maria Grigoratou & Elaine Fileman & Katrin Schmidt & Constantin Frangoulis, 2024. "Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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