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Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks

Author

Listed:
  • Siwei Cheng

    (Department of Sociology, New York University, New York, NY 10012)

  • Fangqi Wen

    (Department of Sociology, New York University, New York, NY 10012)

Abstract

Recent research suggests that intergenerational income mobility has remained low and stable in America, but popular discourse routinely assumes that Americans are optimistic about mobility prospects in society. Examining these 2 seemingly contradictory observations requires a careful measurement of the public’s perceptions of mobility. Unlike most previous work that measures perceptions about mobility outcomes for the overall population or certain subgroups, we propose a survey instrument that emphasizes the variation in perceived mobility prospects for hypothetical children across parent income ranks. Based on this survey instrument, we derive the perceived relationship between the income ranks of parents and children, which can then be compared against the actual rank–rank relationship reported by empirical work based on tax data. We fielded this instrument in a general population survey experiment ( n = 3,077). Our results suggest that Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks. They overestimate economic prospects for children from rich families and underestimate economic prospects for those from poor families.

Suggested Citation

  • Siwei Cheng & Fangqi Wen, 2019. "Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(28), pages 13909-13914, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:116:y:2019:p:13909-13914
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barton, Jared & Pan, Xiaofei, 2022. "Movin’ on up? A survey experiment on mobility enhancing policies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Abraham Aldama & Cristina Bicchieri & Jana Freundt & Barbara Mellers & Ellen Peters, 2021. "How perceptions of autonomy relate to beliefs about inequality and fairness," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Summers, Kate & Accominotti, Fabien & Burchardt, Tania & Hecht, Katharina & Mann, Liz & Mijs, Jonathan J.B, 2022. "Deliberating inequality: a blueprint for studying the social formation of beliefs about economic inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114591, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Jolakoski, Petar & Pal, Arnab & Sandev, Trifce & Kocarev, Ljupco & Metzler, Ralf & Stojkoski, Viktor, 2023. "A first passage under resetting approach to income dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    5. Petar Jolakoski & Arnab Pal & Trifce Sandev & Ljupco Kocarev & Ralf Metzler & Viktor Stojkoski, 2022. "The fate of the American dream: A first passage under resetting approach to income dynamics," Papers 2212.13176, arXiv.org.

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