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Flights-to-quality from EM Bonds to safe-haven US Treasury Securities: A time-frequency Analysis

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  • Mariya Gubareva
  • Zaghum Umar
  • Tamara Teplova
  • Xuan Vinh Vo

Abstract

We study 2001–2020 flight-to-quality episodes encompassing two planetary-scale crises: the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007–2008 and the coronavirus-triggered global meltdown. We focus on time-frequency lead-lag nexuses between holding emerging market (EM) debt and investing in relatively risk-free US Treasuries. Wavelet coherency along with the phase-difference approach is used. Our results reveal varying lead-lag patterns and low-coherence zones between EM bonds and US Treasuries, which imply the existence of appealing diversification attributes. The flights-to-quality during the crisis periods, such as the GFC and COVID-19 pandemic, emphasize the safe-haven characteristics of US Treasures. They also evidence that the post-Covid tightening of credit spreads to the pre-crisis levels is faster than the post-GFC recovery. We demonstrate that for EM debt investors, the US Treasury market allows for dynamic risk mitigation strategies during both global crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariya Gubareva & Zaghum Umar & Tamara Teplova & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Flights-to-quality from EM Bonds to safe-haven US Treasury Securities: A time-frequency Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(2), pages 338-362, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:59:y:2023:i:2:p:338-362
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2022.2103399
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    Cited by:

    1. Mensi, Walid & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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