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Outlook for CEEC Agricultural Markets After EU Accession




This paper describes the development of modeling tools to simulate the effects of agricultural policy changes in new member states (NMSs) of the European Union and presents results of a modeling exercise. Partial equilibrium models simulate policy change scenarios, such as accession to the European Union, as well as other policy developments and external conditions, such as changes in exchange or economic growth rates. Results show the effects of policy change on the main agricultural product markets for a ten-year horizon. In particular, NMSs gain from higher prices and budgetary support. Projections for most sectors show real improvements on recent production levels, but less so when compared with the production of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Accession supports orientation toward crop production, for which Central and East European countries (CEECs) become important net exporters. Livestock production would also benefit from accession, with beef and pork most likely to exhibit appreciable growth, driven by higher, postaccession prices. Production growth in the dairy sector is more limited under the accession scenario than under the baseline, due to milk quota introduction. Scenario results indicate that, in the aggregate, CEEC agriculture has less favorable growth potential if it remains outside the European Union and retains the policy instruments in place before accession.

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  • Emil Erjavec & Trevor Donnellan & Stane Kavcic, 2006. "Outlook for CEEC Agricultural Markets After EU Accession," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 83-103, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:44:y:2006:i:1:p:83-103

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    Cited by:

    1. Rednak, Miroslav & Volk, Tina & Erjavec, Emil, 2007. "EAA-ABTA Model for Ex-Post and Ex-Ante Analysis of Economic Position of Slovenian Agriculture," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162404, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Jámbor, Attila & Kovács, Sándor & Somai, Miklós, 2016. "Tíz év az Európai Unióban - az új tagországok agrárteljesítményei
      [A decade in the EU: the agricultural performances of the new member-states]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 260-284.
    3. Howley, Peter & Breen, James P. & Donoghue, Cathal O. & Hennessy, Thia, 2012. "Does the single farm payment affect farmers’ behaviour? A macro and micro analysis," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management;International Farm Management Association, vol. 2(1), October.
    4. Ledebur, Oliver von & Salamon, Petra & Zimmermann, Andrei & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Chantreuil, Frederic, 2008. "Modelling Impacts Of Some European Biofuel Measures," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6649, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Chantreuil, Frederic & Tabeau, Andrzej A. & van Leeuwen, Myrna, 2008. "Estimation of impact of EU agricultural policies on the world market prices," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6671, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Jambor, Attila & Sirone Varadi, Julia, 2014. "10 years of EU membership: winners and losers in the agri-food sector of the new member states," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182736, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Erjavec, Emil & van Leeuven, Myrna & Regoršek, Darja, 2007. "The Development of CEEC Agricultural Markets After EU Accession," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162402, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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