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The Liquidity Trap and U.S. Interest Rates in the 1930s

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  • Hanes, Christopher

Abstract

Most current literature assumes that a central bank loses the ability to influence interest rates through variations in reserve supply as soon as overnight rates have been driven to zero. I argue that reserve supply can be directly related to longer-term rates when overnight rates are zero because banks' reserve demand is then defined by the role of cash as an asset free of interest-rate risk. I present evidence that reserve supply affected longer-term interest rates in the U.S. from 1934 through 1939, while overnight rates were at the zero floor, even when the changes in reserve supply reflected factors unlikely to have affected expectations of future overnight rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanes, Christopher, 2006. "The Liquidity Trap and U.S. Interest Rates in the 1930s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 163-194, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:1:p:163-194
    DOI: 10.1353/mcb.2006.0017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Calomiris, Charles W. & Mason, Joseph R. & Wheelock, David C., 2011. "Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the Recession of 1937-1938? A Microeconomic Approach," Working Papers 11-03, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    2. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Christopher Hanes & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "A New Daily Federal Funds Rate Series and History of the Federal Funds Market, 1928-1954," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Damette, Olivier & Parent, Antoine & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Liquidity traps and large-scale financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-114.
    4. Chang, Su-Hsin & Contessi, Silvio & Francis, Johanna L., 2014. "Understanding the accumulation of bank and thrift reserves during the U.S. financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 78-106.
    5. Jaremski, Matthew & Mathy, Gabriel, 2018. "How was the quantitative easing program of the 1930s Unwound?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 27-49.
    6. Choi Sangyup & Yoon Chansik, 2022. "Uncertainty, Financial Markets, and Monetary Policy over the Last Century," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 397-434, June.
    7. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2019. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap with an Application to the USA," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(4), December.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Mason, Joseph R. & Wheelock, David C., 2023. "Did doubling reserve requirements cause the 1937–38 recession? New evidence on the impact of reserve requirements on bank reserve demand and lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Jon Cohen & Kinda Hachem & Gary Richardson, 2021. "Relationship Lending and the Great Depression," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 505-520, July.
    10. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2015. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap," GEMF Working Papers 2015-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    11. Peter J. Morgan, 2012. "The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Mark A. Carlson & David C. Wheelock, 2014. "Navigating constraints: the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy, 1935-59," Working Papers 2014-13, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Peter F. Basile & John Landon-Lane & Hugh Rockoff, 2010. "Money and Interest Rates in the United States during the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 16204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Le Riche, Antoine & Magris, Francesco & Parent, Antoine, 2017. "Liquidity Trap and stability of Taylor rules," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-27.
    15. Mark A. Carlson & Burcu Duygan-Bump, 2018. "“Unconventional” Monetary Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy : A Perspective from the U.S. in the 1920s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Christopher Hanes, 2019. "Quantitative Easing in the 1930s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1169-1207, August.
    17. Peter F. Basile & Sung Won Kang & John Landon-Lane & Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "Towards a History of the Junk Bond Market, 1910-1955," Departmental Working Papers 201514, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    18. Douglas A. Irwin, 2011. "Gold Sterilization and the Recession of 1937-38," NBER Working Papers 17595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. João Braz Pinto & João Sousa Andrade, 2015. "A Monetary Analysis of the Liquidity Trap," GEMF Working Papers 2015-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

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