IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Basle Guidelines for Backtesting Banks' Internal Risk Management Models


  • Lucas, Andre


The 1996 Amendment to the Baste capital accord to incorporate market risks constitutes a breakthrough in the determination of capital requirements. Rather than dictating these requirements through a uniform supervisory approach, banks are allowed to use their own, internal models for computing the capital required. In order to mitigate moral hazard problems and stimulate banks to use adequate internal models, the models must be subjected to a backtesting procedure. If a model produces too many incorrect predictions, increased capital requirements result. This paper provides an evaluation of the current internal models approach in conjunction with the proposed backtesting procedure. In particular, using a stylized representation of the present supervisory framework, we investigate whether banks are provided with the right incentives to come up with the correct internal model. We find that under the current regulatory framework banks are prone to under-reporting their true market risk. A much stricter penalty scheme is required in order to align banks' incentives with those of the supervisor. We check the sensitivity of our results to changes in the length of the planning horizon, portfolio risk, time preferences, risk attitudes, and the distribution of financial returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas, Andre, 2001. "Evaluating the Basle Guidelines for Backtesting Banks' Internal Risk Management Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 826-846, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:33:y:2001:i:3:p:826-46

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2013. "A comparison of the original and revised Basel market risk frameworks for regulating bank capital," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 249-268.
    2. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "When more is less: Using multiple constraints to reduce tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2693-2716.
    3. Jean-Edouard Colliard, 2019. "Strategic Selection of Risk Models and Bank Capital Regulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2591-2606, June.
    4. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2014. "Bank regulation and international financial stability: A case against the 2006 Basel framework for controlling tail risk in trading books," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-130.
    5. da Veiga, B. & Chan, F. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "It Pays to Violate: How Effective are the Basel Accord Penalties?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-39, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Pérignon, Christophe & Deng, Zi Yin & Wang, Zhi Jun, 2008. "Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 783-794, May.
    7. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2017. "Bank Capital Regulation of Trading Portfolios: An Assessment of the Basel Framework," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 603-634, June.
    8. Al-Hadi, Ahmed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Hussain, Syed Mujahid & Taylor, Grantley, 2019. "Market risk disclosures and corporate governance structure: Evidence from GCC financial firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 136-150.
    9. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "Bank regulation and stability: An examination of the Basel market risk framework," Discussion Papers 09/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Gyöngyi Bugár & Anita Ratting, 2016. "Revision of the quantification of market risk in the Basel III regulatory framework," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 15(1), pages 33-50.
    11. Katherine Uylangco & Siqiwen Li, 2016. "An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(4), pages 699-718, November.
    12. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2012. "Does Basel II Pillar 3 Risk Exposure Data help to Identify Risky Banks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:33:y:2001:i:3:p:826-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.