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The Natural Cycle: WHY Economic Fluctuations are Inevitable. A Schumpeterian Extension of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

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  • Carmelo Ferlito

    () (Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, Malaysia)

Abstract

The conventional version of Austrian business cycle theory focuses on a temporary imbalance between natural and monetary rates of interest. When, because of the role of monetary authorities in defining the monetary rate, the two values are in a situation of imbalance, the resulting expansion stage is followed by a recession. On the other hand, if instead the expansive phase arises without any interference by monetary authorities but through re-adaptation of the productive structure to a modified structure of temporal preferences, a period of sustainable growth begins that will not be followed by a crisis. The purpose of this essay is to demonstrate, on the other hand, that because of profitexpectations and the combined action of Schumpeterian elements (imitations-speculations and the ‘creation of money’ by banks), even a so-called ‘sustainable’ boom will be affected by a liquidation and settling crisis. What distinguishes the latter situation from the conventional case of imbalance between monetary and natural rates is not the onset or otherwise of a crisis but, rather, its intensity and duration. We will define as natural an economic cycle characterised by a stage of expansion considered to be ‘sustainable’ in the Austrian theory but followed by an inevitable readjustment crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmelo Ferlito, 2014. "The Natural Cycle: WHY Economic Fluctuations are Inevitable. A Schumpeterian Extension of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 200-219.
  • Handle: RePEc:lif:jrgelg:v:3:y:2014:p:200-219
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    File URL: http://www.lifescienceglobal.com/independent-journals/journal-of-reviews-on-global-economics/volume-3/85-abstract/jrge/966-abstract-the-natural-cycle-why-economic-fluctuations-are-inevitable-a-schumpeterian-extension-of-the-austrian-business-cycle-theory
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2015. "Ludwig M. Lachmann contro la Scuola di Cambridge
      [Ludwig M. Lachmann against the Cambridge School]
      ," MPRA Paper 67759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2014. "Ludwig M. Lachmann Against the Cambridge School. Macroeconomics, Microfoundations, Expectations, Rate of Profit, Equilibrium and Innovations," MPRA Paper 67709, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Jan 2015.
    3. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2015. "At the Root of Economic Fluctuations: Expectations, Preferences and Innovation. Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidences," MPRA Paper 67708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ferlito, Carmelo, 2015. "Entrepreneurship: State of grace or human action? Schumpeter’s leadership vs Kirzner’s alertness," MPRA Paper 67694, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austrian Economics; Hayek; Schumpeter; Business Cycles; Expectations; Innovation;

    JEL classification:

    • B13 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian)
    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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