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The impact of accruals and lines of business on analysts’ earnings forecast superiority

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  • Kenneth Lorek
  • Donald Pagach

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the linkage between analyst advantage (AA) (compared to the seasonal random walk model) in the prediction of quarterly earnings-per-share (EPS) and a broad set of economic determinants. Specifically, we employ a pooled cross-sectional time-series regression model where AA is linked to a set of firm-specific economic determinants that have been employed in extant work (e.g., Brown et al. in J Account Res 22:49–67, 1987 ; Kross et al. in Account Rev 65:461–476, 1990 ). We refine this set of independent variables by including a new variable (RATIODEV) based upon Sloan (Account Rev 71(3):289–315, 1996 ) who documents that differential levels of accruals impact future earnings performance. This variable is particularly salient in explaining AA since analysts may be in a position to identify the permanent component of accruals via fundamental financial analysis. Additionally, we refine the measurement of lines of business—consistent with the reporting requirements of SFAS No. 131 relative to extant work that operationalized proxies for this variable based upon SFAS No. 14. Parameters for these aforementioned variables are significantly positively related to AA, consistent with theory. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

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  • Kenneth Lorek & Donald Pagach, 2012. "The impact of accruals and lines of business on analysts’ earnings forecast superiority," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 293-308, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:39:y:2012:i:3:p:293-308
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-011-0254-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Pieter T. Elgers & May H. Lo & Wenjuan Xie & Le Emily Xu, 2016. "A Contextual Evaluation of Composite Forecasts of Annual Earnings," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(03), pages 1-40, September.
    2. Christopher Edmonds & Ryan Leece & John Maher, 2013. "CEO bonus compensation: the effects of missing analysts’ revenue forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 149-170, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analysts’ quarterly earnings forecasts; Time-series quarterly earnings forecasts; Lines of business; Accruals; C22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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