IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v35y2016i4d10.1007_s11113-016-9395-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Predictive Value of Fertility Expectations Through a Cognitive–Social Model

Author

Listed:
  • Heather M. Rackin

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Christine A. Bachrach

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract

This paper grounds its analysis in a novel model (Bachrach and Morgan in Popul Dev Rev, 39:459–485, 2013) that suggests that responses to questions about fertility intentions may reflect distinct phenomena at distinct points in the life course. The model suggests that women form "true" intentions when their circumstances make the issue of childbearing salient and urgent enough to draw the cognitive resources needed to make a conscious plan; before this, women report intentions based on cognitive images of family and self. We test the implications of this model for reported fertility expectations using NLSY79 data that measure expectations throughout the life course. We find that early in the life course, before marriage and parenthood, women’s fertility expectations are associated with family background and cognitive images of family and future self. Later in the life course, as women experience life course transitions that confer statuses normatively associated with childbearing—such as marriage—and parenthood itself, their reported expectations are better predictors of their fertility than before they passed these life course milestones. Our empirical results provide support for a model which has important implications for both the measurement and conceptualization of women’s intended and expected fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather M. Rackin & Christine A. Bachrach, 2016. "Assessing the Predictive Value of Fertility Expectations Through a Cognitive–Social Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(4), pages 527-551, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:35:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-016-9395-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-016-9395-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-016-9395-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-016-9395-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Icek Ajzen, 2011. "Reflections on Morgan and Bachrach’s critique," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 63-69.
    2. Christine Bachrach, 2014. "Culture and Demography: From Reluctant Bedfellows to Committed Partners," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 3-25, February.
    3. Otis Duncan & Ronald Freedman & J. Coble & Doris Slesinger, 1965. "Marital Fertility and Size of Family of Orientation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 2(1), pages 508-515, March.
    4. Nan Johnson & C. Stokes, 1976. "Family size in successive generations: The effects of birth order, intergenerational change in lifestyle, and familial satisfaction," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 13(2), pages 175-187, May.
    5. William Axinn & Marin Clarkberg & Arland Thornton, 1994. "Family influences on family size preferences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 65-79, February.
    6. Andres Vikat & Zsolt Spéder & Gijs Beets & Francesco Billari & Christoph Bühler & Aline Désesquelles & Tineke Fokkema & Jan M. Hoem & Alphonse MacDonald & Gerda Neyer & Ariane Pailhé & Antonella Pinne, 2007. "Generations and Gender Survey (GGS)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(14), pages 389-440.
    7. Warren B. Miller, 2011. "REFEREED ARTICLES - Differences between fertility desires and intentions: implications for theory, research and policy," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 75-98.
    8. S. Philip Morgan & Heather Rackin, 2010. "The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 91-118, March.
    9. Jennifer S. Barber, 2011. "The Theory of Planned Behaviour: considering drives, proximity and dynamics," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 31-35.
    10. Christine A. Bachrach & S. Philip Morgan, 2013. "A Cognitive–Social Model of Fertility Intentions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 459-485, September.
    11. Douglas Anderton & Noriko Tsuya & Lee Bean & Geraldine Mineau, 1987. "Intergenerational transmission of relative fertility and life course patterns," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 467-480, November.
    12. William Axinn & Arland Thornton, 1996. "The influence of parents’ marital dissolutions on children’s attitudes toward family formation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(1), pages 66-81, February.
    13. Charles Westoff & Norman Ryder, 1977. "The Predictive Validity Of Reproductive Intentions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 14(4), pages 431-453, November.
    14. Christine A. Bachrach & Philip S. Morgan, 2011. "DEMOGRAPHIC DEBATE - Is the Theory of Planned Behaviour an appropriate model for human fertility?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 11-18.
    15. Barrett, Geraldine & Wellings, Kaye, 2002. "What is a 'planned' pregnancy? empirical data from a British study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 545-557, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heather Rackin & S. Philip Morgan, 2018. "Prospective versus retrospective measurement of unwanted fertility: Strengths, weaknesses, and inconsistencies assessed for a cohort of US women," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(3), pages 61-94.
    2. Maria Rita Testa & Danilo Bolano, 2021. "When partners’ disagreement prevents childbearing: A couple-level analysis in Australia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(33), pages 811-838.
    3. Andrea M. Tilstra, 2018. "Estimating Educational Differences in Low-Risk Cesarean Section Delivery: A Multilevel Modeling Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 117-135, February.
    4. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    5. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah Hayford, 2018. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Union Formation Timing, and Achieved Fertility," VID Working Papers 1810, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    6. Sarah R. Hayford & Victor Agadjanian, 2019. "Spacing, Stopping, or Postponing? Fertility Desires in a Sub-Saharan Setting," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 573-594, April.
    7. Alison Gemmill, 2019. "From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 129-149, February.
    8. Colleen Ray & Sela Harcey & Arthur Greil & Stacy Tiemeyer & Julia McQuillan, 2018. "Stability and change in personal fertility ideals among U.S. women in heterosexual relationships," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(16), pages 459-486.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    2. Colleen Ray & Sela Harcey & Arthur Greil & Stacy Tiemeyer & Julia McQuillan, 2018. "Stability and change in personal fertility ideals among U.S. women in heterosexual relationships," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(16), pages 459-486.
    3. Eva Beaujouan & Caroline Berghammer, 2019. "The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 507-535, August.
    4. Johan Dahlberg, 2013. "Family influence in fertility: A longitudinal analysis of sibling correlations in first birth risk and completed fertility among Swedish men and women," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(9), pages 233-246.
    5. Christine A. Bachrach & S. Philip Morgan, 2013. "A Cognitive–Social Model of Fertility Intentions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 459-485, September.
    6. Monika Mynarska & Zuzanna Brzozowska, 2022. "Things to Gain, Things to Lose: Perceived Costs and Benefits of Children and Intention to Remain Childless in Poland," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 160-171.
    7. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2014. "Failure to Realize Fertility Intentions: A Key Aspect of the Post-communist Fertility Transition," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(3), pages 393-418, June.
    8. Kathrin Morosow & Martin Kolk, 2020. "How Does Birth Order and Number of Siblings Affect Fertility? A Within-Family Comparison Using Swedish Register Data," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 197-233, April.
    9. Icek Ajzen & Jane Klobas, 2013. "Fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(8), pages 203-232.
    10. Ying Li & Quanbao Jiang, 2017. "The Intergenerational Effect and Second Childbirth: Survey Findings from the Shaanxi Province of China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 669-691, September.
    11. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan, 2014. "Two Is Best? The Persistence of a Two-Child Family Ideal in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(3), pages 391-419, September.
    12. Najat Bazah & A. Jesús Sánchez Fuentes, 2024. "Fertility as a variable for tackling the demographic challenge, is having children in Spain an unfulfilled desire?," Working Papers REM 2024/0317, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Johan Dahlberg, 2015. "Social Background and Becoming a Parent in Sweden: A Register-Based Study of the Effect of Social Background on Childbearing in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 417-444, October.
    14. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin & Éva Beaujouan, 2011. "Uncertainty in fertility intentions in Britain, 1979-2007," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 99-129.
    15. Vida Maralani & Samuel Stabler, 2018. "Intensive Parenting: Fertility and Breastfeeding Duration in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1681-1704, October.
    16. Eva Beaujouan & Anne Solaz, 2019. "Is the Family Size of Parents and Children Still Related? Revisiting the Cross-Generational Relationship Over the Last Century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(2), pages 595-619, April.
    17. Zuzanna Brzozowska, 2015. "Intergenerational educational mobility and completed fertility," IBS Working Papers 1/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    18. Ea Hoppe Blaabæk & Mads Meier Jæger & Joseph Molitoris, 2020. "Family Size and Educational Attainment: Cousins, Contexts, and Compensation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 575-600, July.
    19. Silles, Mary A., 2010. "The implications of family size and birth order for test scores and behavioral development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 795-803, October.
    20. Eva Beaujouan & Anne Solaz, 2016. "Are family sizes of parents and children still related? Revisiting the cross-generationalrelationship over the last century," Working Papers 223, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:35:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11113-016-9395-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.