IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jfamec/v44y2023i4d10.1007_s10834-022-09872-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • Camilla Matera

    (University of Florence)

  • Lars Dommermuth

    (Statistics Norway)

  • Silvia Bacci

    (University of Florence)

  • Bruno Bertaccini

    (University of Florence)

  • Alessandra Minello

    (University of Florence)

  • Daniele Vignoli

    (University of Florence)

Abstract

By adopting a dyadic extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), this study examined whether perceived economic uncertainty affects fertility intentions. Three-hundred thirty one heterosexual couples living in Italy participated in a randomized between-group experimental study, in which we manipulated perceived economic uncertainty (low vs. high vs. control). The participants subsequently completed a questionnaire measuring their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and fertility intentions. We employed Structural Equation Modelling in estimating the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model. The model showed a good fit to the data. Women’s attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were influenced by the high economic uncertain scenario, whereas among men these variables were affected only by the positive economic scenario. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of fertility intentions for both sexes. Significant partner effects were observed as well. These findings suggest that fertility plans should be examined by adopting a dyadic perspective, as individuals’ intentions are affected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilla Matera & Lars Dommermuth & Silvia Bacci & Bruno Bertaccini & Alessandra Minello & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 790-806, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfamec:v:44:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10834-022-09872-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10834-022-09872-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10834-022-09872-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10834-022-09872-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Van Bavel, 2017. "What do men want? The growing importance of men’s characteristics for fertility," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 041-47.
    2. Petra Stein & Sebastian Willen & Monika Pavetic, 2014. "Couples' fertility decision-making," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(63), pages 1697-1732.
    3. Zsolt Spéder & Balázs Kapitány, 2009. "How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization, Postponement, Abandonment, Bringing Forward," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 503-523, November.
    4. Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
    5. Elena Fornaini & Camilla Matera & Amanda Nerini & Giulia Rosa Policardo & Cristian Di Gesto, 2021. "The Power of Words: Appearance Comments from One’s Partner Can Affect Men’s Body Image and Women’s Couple Relationship," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(17), pages 1-13, September.
    6. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    7. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    8. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    9. Gieseck, Arne & Rujin, Svetlana, 2020. "The impact of the recent spike in uncertainty on economic activity in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    10. Alessandro Rosina & Romina Fraboni, 2004. "Is marriage losing its centrality in Italy?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(6), pages 149-172.
    11. Marco Novelli & Alberto Cazzola & Aurora Angeli & Lucia Pasquini, 2021. "Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-284, February.
    12. Maria Castiglioni & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Marzia Loghi, 2001. "Planned and Unplanned Births and Conceptions in Italy, 1970–1995," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 207-233, September.
    13. Elizabeth Thomson & Jan Hoem, 1998. "Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(3), pages 315-322, August.
    14. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294.
    16. Francesco C. Billari & Dimiter Philipov & Maria Rita Testa, 2009. "Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria [Attitudes, normes et contrôle perçu du comportement: Une explication des intentions de fécondité en ," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 439-465, November.
    17. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    18. Doris Hanappi & Valérie-Anne Ryser & Laura Bernardi & Jean-Marie Le Goff, 2017. "Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention–Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 381-407, July.
    19. Dimiter Philipov, 2009. "Fertility Intentions and Outcomes: The Role of Policies to Close the Gap [Intentions de fécondité et fécondité observée: Rôle des politiques publiques dans la réduction du décalage]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 355-361, November.
    20. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson & Ariane Pailhé, 2012. "Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(28), pages 835-852.
    21. Elizabeth Thomson & Yvonne Brandreth, 1995. "Measuring fertility demand," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, February.
    22. Alessandro Rosina & Laura Cavalli & Maria Rita Testa, 2011. "Couples’ childbearing behaviour in Italy: which of the partners is leading it?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 157-178.
    23. Daniele Vignoli & Silvana Salvini, 2014. "Religion and union formation in Italy: Catholic precepts, social pressure, and tradition," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(35), pages 1079-1106.
    24. Albert Esteve & Christine R. Schwartz & Jan Bavel & Iñaki Permanyer & Martin Klesment & Joan García-Román, 2016. "The End of Hypergamy: Global Trends and Implications," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(4), pages 615-625, December.
    25. Laurent Toulemon & Maria Rita Testa, 2006. "Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 41-75.
    26. Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Daniele Vignoli, 2022. "Narratives of the future and fertility decision-making in uncertain times. An application to the COVID-19 pandemic," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 223-260.
    27. Ledyard Tucker & Charles Lewis, 1973. "A reliability coefficient for maximum likelihood factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 38(1), pages 1-10, March.
    28. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0361 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Gerda Neyer & Trude Lappegård & Daniele Vignoli, 2013. "Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 245-272, August.
    30. Natalie Nitsche & Anna Matysiak & Jan Bavel & Daniele Vignoli, 2018. "Partners’ Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1195-1232, August.
    31. Daniele Vignoli & Sven Drefahl & Gustavo De Santis, 2012. "Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(2), pages 41-62.
    32. Rosseel, Yves, 2012. "lavaan: An R Package for Structural Equation Modeling," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 48(i02).
    33. Rob Eisinga & Manfred Grotenhuis & Ben Pelzer, 2013. "The reliability of a two-item scale: Pearson, Cronbach, or Spearman-Brown?," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 58(4), pages 637-642, August.
    34. Elizabeth Thomson & Elaine McDonald & Larry Bumpass, 1990. "Fertility desires and fertility: Hers, his, and theirs," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(4), pages 579-588, November.
    35. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2022. "Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 93-124, March.
    2. Daniele Vignoli & Alessandra Minello & Giacomo Bazzani & Camilla Matera & Chiara Rapallini, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: The Causal Effect of Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_05, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Daniele Vignoli & Raffaele Guetto & Giacomo Bazzani & Elena Pirani & Alessandra Minello, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility in Europe: Narratives of the Future," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    4. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    5. Arpino, Bruno & LUPPI, FRANCESCA & Rosina, Alessandro, 2021. "Changes in fertility plans during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: the role of occupation and income vulnerability," SocArXiv 4sjvm, Center for Open Science.
    6. Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Sprawl or Segregation? Local Fertility as a Proxy of Socio-spatial Disparities Under Sequential Economic Downturns," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1129-1160, December.
    7. Daniele Vignli & Letizia Mencarini & Giammarco Alderotti, 2018. "Is the Impact of Employment Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?," Working Papers 114, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    8. Marco Novelli & Alberto Cazzola & Aurora Angeli & Lucia Pasquini, 2021. "Fertility Intentions in Times of Rising Economic Uncertainty: Evidence from Italy from a Gender Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 257-284, February.
    9. Annalisa Busetta & Daria Mendola & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(8), pages 185-218.
    10. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Giammarco Alderotti & Daniele Vignoli & Michela Baccini & Anna Matysiak, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility: A Network Meta-Analysis of European Research Findings," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    12. Arianna Gatta & Francesco Mattioli & Letizia Mencarini & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Employment Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: Stability or Resilience?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_12, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    13. Alberto Cazzola & Lucia Pasquini & Aurora Angeli, 2016. "The relationship between unemployment and fertility in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(1), pages 1-38.
    14. Chiara L. Comolli & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    15. Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo & Mariateresa Ciommi & Ioannis Vardopoulos & Bogdana Nosova & Luca Salvati, 2022. "The Medium-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Dynamics: The Case of Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, October.
    16. Francesca Fiori & Francesca Rinesi & Antonella Pinnelli & Sabrina Prati, 2013. "Economic Insecurity and the Fertility Intentions of Italian Women with One Child," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 32(3), pages 373-413, June.
    17. Susanne Fahlén & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2018. "Economic uncertainty and first-birth intentions in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(28), pages 795-834.
    18. Danilo Bolano & Daniele Vignoli, 2020. "First Union Formation in Australia: Actual Constraints or Perceived Uncertainty?," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2020_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    19. Ilaria Zambon & Kostas Rontos & Cecilia Reynaud & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Toward an unwanted dividend? Fertility decline and the North–South divide in Italy, 1952–2018," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 169-187, February.
    20. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jfamec:v:44:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10834-022-09872-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.