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Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic

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  • David Hauner

Abstract

Projections of age-related public expenditure growth have raised widespread concerns about fiscal sustainability. This paper examines how total expenditure would develop under four policy rules on public expenditure growth. Some simple arithmetic of expenditure, GDP, and population is reviewed and applied in simulations for 19 OECD countries over 2000–50. A general and a specific conclusion arise from the results. Generally, long-term expenditure projections could benefit from revisiting common assumptions on non-age-related expenditure growth. Specifically, realistic gradual adjustment in non-age-related expenditures could go a long way towards maintaining fiscal sustainability under age-related spending pressures. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2007

Suggested Citation

  • David Hauner, 2007. "Aging: Some Pleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 347-364, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:3:p:347-364:10.1007/s11294-007-9093-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11294-007-9093-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tanzi,Vito & Schuknecht,Ludger, 2000. "Public Spending in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662918.
    3. Mr. Peter S. Heller & Mr. David Hauner, 2005. "Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century," IMF Working Papers 2005/091, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Fiscal sustainability; OECD countries; Public expenditure; H50; J11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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