Risk-neutral and actual default probabilities with an endogenous bankruptcy jump-diffusion model
This paper focuses on historical and risk-neutral default probabilities in a structural model, when the firm assets dynamics are modeled by a double exponential jump diffusion process. Relying on the Leland [(1994a) Journal of Finance, 49, 1213–1252; (1994b) Bond prices, yield spreads, and optimal capital structure with default risk. Working paper no. 240, IBER, University of California, Berkeley] or Leland and Toft [(1996) Journal of Finance, 51(3), 987–1019] endogenous structural approaches, as formalized by Hilberink and Rogers [(2002) Finance and Stochastics, 6(2), 237–263], this article gives a coherent construction of historical default probabilities. The risk-neutral world where evolve the firm assets, modeled by a class of geometric Lévy processes, is constructed based on the Esscher measure, yielding useful and new analytical relations between historical and risk-neutral probabilities. We do a complete numerical analysis of the predictions of our framework, and compare these predictions with actual data. In particular, this new framework displays an enhanced predictive power w.r.t. current Gaussian endogenous structural models. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006
Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Web page: http://www.jafee.gr.jp/
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/10690/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996.
" Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
- Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
- Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Bianca Hilberink & L.C.G. Rogers, 2002. "Optimal capital structure and endogenous default," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 237-263.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
- Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- S. G. Kou & Hui Wang, 2004. "Option Pricing Under a Double Exponential Jump Diffusion Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1178-1192, September.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
- Usabel, Miguel, 1999. "Calculating multivariate ruin probabilities via Gaver-Stehfest inversion technique," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 133-142, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)