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Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market

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Abstract

This study estimates models of industrial rents at the national level in Great Britain. James Lan Wooten and CB Hillier Parker rent indices are used to model changes in real rents. These changes are positively related to changes in real GDP and inversely affected by absorption, as measured by King Sturge & Co. Additionally, changes in rents convey information not captured by GDP and absorption. The lagged effects of the variables differ for each index, attributable to the construction methodologies followed. Dynamic forecasts for both models show a small overprediction in 1996 and 1997. Ex ante forecasts suggest that both will show positive real growth throughout 1998 and 1999.

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  • Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(2), pages 151-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:17:n:2:1999:p:151-168
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    1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    2. Hoag, James W, 1980. "Towards Indices of Real Estate Value and Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 569-580, May.
    3. Brent W. Ambrose, 1990. "An Analysis of the Factors Affecting Light Industrial Property Valuation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(3), pages 355-370.
    4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    5. Richard J. Buttimer, Jr. & Ronald C. Rutherford & Ron Witten, 1997. "Industrial Warehouse Rent Determinants in the Dallas/Fort Worth Area," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 47-56.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. William L. Attebery & Ronald C. Rutherford & Mark E. Eakin, 1993. "Industrial Real Estate Prices and Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 377-386.
    8. Bob Thompson, 1997. "Industrial Employment Densities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 309-320.
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    1. Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188.
    2. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "Industrial Land Values — A Guide to Future Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 55-76.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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