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An Exploration of Drivers of Opinion Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Els Weinans

  • George van Voorn

  • Patrick Steinmann

  • Elisa Perrone

  • Ahmadreza Marandi

Abstract

Our ability to deal with external changes is determined by our collective willingness to transform and adopt new technologies. These factors are driven by people's opinion on the change itself and the proposed policies. Humans constantly update their opinion by integrating new information they hear with their values, which help them make a judgement about that new information. Here, we create an agent-based model that explicitly incorporates the concept of values to explore possible drivers of opinion dynamics. In the model, we explore several factors and perform local and global sensitivity analysis to test their individual and interaction effects. We find that consensus formation in the model is mainly determined by factors related to (1) the amount of stochasticity in the opinion updating procedure and (2) the relative ease with which old links are removed and new links are created. Our results demonstrate how opinions and values may co-evolve. Furthermore, they may help in understanding human responses to new policies such as covid-related restrictions or calls to shift to a more plant-based diet.

Suggested Citation

  • Els Weinans & George van Voorn & Patrick Steinmann & Elisa Perrone & Ahmadreza Marandi, 2024. "An Exploration of Drivers of Opinion Dynamics," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 27(1), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2022-68-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johnathan Adams & Gentry White & Robyn Araujo, 2021. "The Role of Mistrust in the Modelling of Opinion Adoption," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 24(4), pages 1-4.
    2. Sylvie Huet & Guillaume Deffuant, 2010. "Openness Leads To Opinion Stability And Narrowness To Volatility," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 405-423.
    3. Pachucki, M.A. & Jacques, P.F. & Christakis, N.A., 2011. "Social network concordance in food choice among spouses, friends, and siblings," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 101(11), pages 2170-2177.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Steinmann & Koen van der Zwet & Bas Keijser, 2024. "Simulation‐based generation and analysis of multidimensional future scenarios with time series clustering," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(4), December.
    2. Li, Zhifang & Chen, Xiaojie, 2026. "Evolutionary dynamics of binary opinions with decision errors on social networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 514(C).

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