IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v62y2014i5p1142-1167.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Pricing with an Unknown Demand Model: Asymptotically Optimal Semi-Myopic Policies

Author

Listed:
  • N. Bora Keskin

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

  • Assaf Zeevi

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

Abstract

We consider a monopolist who sells a set of products over a time horizon of T periods. The seller initially does not know the parameters of the products' linear demand curve, but can estimate them based on demand observations. We first assume that the seller knows nothing about the parameters of the demand curve, and then consider the case where the seller knows the expected demand under an incumbent price. It is shown that the smallest achievable revenue loss in T periods, relative to a clairvoyant who knows the underlying demand model, is of order T in the former case and of order log T in the latter case. To derive pricing policies that are practically implementable, we take as our point of departure the widely used policy called greedy iterated least squares (ILS), which combines sequential estimation and myopic price optimization. It is known that the greedy ILS policy itself suffers from incomplete learning, but we show that certain variants of greedy ILS achieve the minimum asymptotic loss rate. To highlight the essential features of well-performing pricing policies, we derive sufficient conditions for asymptotic optimality.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2014. "Dynamic Pricing with an Unknown Demand Model: Asymptotically Optimal Semi-Myopic Policies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1142-1167, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:62:y:2014:i:5:p:1142-1167
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.2014.1294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1294
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.2014.1294?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omar Besbes & Assaf Zeevi, 2011. "On the Minimax Complexity of Pricing in a Changing Environment," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 66-79, February.
    2. Josef Broder & Paat Rusmevichientong, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing Under a General Parametric Choice Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 965-980, August.
    3. Anderson, T W & Taylor, John B, 1976. "Some Experimental Results on the Statistical Properties of Least Squares Estimates in Control Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1289-1302, November.
    4. J. Michael Harrison & N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2012. "Bayesian Dynamic Pricing Policies: Learning and Earning Under a Binary Prior Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 570-586, March.
    5. Taylor, John B, 1974. "Asymptotic Properties of Multiperiod Control Rules in the Linear Regression Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 472-484, June.
    6. Omar Besbes & Assaf Zeevi, 2009. "Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1407-1420, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnoud V. den Boer & Bert Zwart, 2014. "Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(3), pages 770-783, March.
    2. Arnoud V. den Boer & Bert Zwart, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Finite Inventories," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 965-978, August.
    3. den Boer, Arnoud V., 2015. "Tracking the market: Dynamic pricing and learning in a changing environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 914-927.
    4. N. Bora Keskin & Assaf Zeevi, 2017. "Chasing Demand: Learning and Earning in a Changing Environment," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 277-307, May.
    5. Arnoud V. den Boer & N. Bora Keskin, 2020. "Discontinuous Demand Functions: Estimation and Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4516-4534, October.
    6. Arnoud V. den Boer, 2014. "Dynamic Pricing with Multiple Products and Partially Specified Demand Distribution," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(3), pages 863-888, August.
    7. William L. Cooper & Tito Homem-de-Mello & Anton J. Kleywegt, 2015. "Learning and Pricing with Models That Do Not Explicitly Incorporate Competition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 86-103, February.
    8. Xiao, Baichun & Yang, Wei, 2021. "A Bayesian learning model for estimating unknown demand parameter in revenue management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 248-262.
    9. Thomas Loots & Arnoud V. den Boer, 2023. "Data‐driven collusion and competition in a pricing duopoly with multinomial logit demand," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1169-1186, April.
    10. Josef Broder & Paat Rusmevichientong, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing Under a General Parametric Choice Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 965-980, August.
    11. Huashuai Qu & Ilya O. Ryzhov & Michael C. Fu & Eric Bergerson & Megan Kurka & Ludek Kopacek, 2020. "Learning Demand Curves in B2B Pricing: A New Framework and Case Study," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(5), pages 1287-1306, May.
    12. Yuqing Zhang & Neil Walton, 2019. "Adaptive Pricing in Insurance: Generalized Linear Models and Gaussian Process Regression Approaches," Papers 1907.05381, arXiv.org.
    13. Stefanus Jasin, 2014. "Reoptimization and Self-Adjusting Price Control for Network Revenue Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1168-1178, October.
    14. Yang, Chaolin & Xiong, Yi, 2020. "Nonparametric advertising budget allocation with inventory constraint," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(2), pages 631-641.
    15. Ruben Geer & Arnoud V. Boer & Christopher Bayliss & Christine S. M. Currie & Andria Ellina & Malte Esders & Alwin Haensel & Xiao Lei & Kyle D. S. Maclean & Antonio Martinez-Sykora & Asbjørn Nilsen Ris, 2019. "Dynamic pricing and learning with competition: insights from the dynamic pricing challenge at the 2017 INFORMS RM & pricing conference," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(3), pages 185-203, June.
    16. Omar Besbes & Assaf Zeevi, 2015. "On the (Surprising) Sufficiency of Linear Models for Dynamic Pricing with Demand Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 723-739, April.
    17. Ying Zhong & L. Jeff Hong & Guangwu Liu, 2021. "Earning and Learning with Varying Cost," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(8), pages 2379-2394, August.
    18. Wang Chi Cheung & David Simchi-Levi & He Wang, 2017. "Technical Note—Dynamic Pricing and Demand Learning with Limited Price Experimentation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(6), pages 1722-1731, December.
    19. Benjamin R. Handel & Kanishka Misra, 2015. "Robust New Product Pricing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(6), pages 864-881, November.
    20. Ruben van de Geer & Arnoud V. den Boer & Christopher Bayliss & Christine Currie & Andria Ellina & Malte Esders & Alwin Haensel & Xiao Lei & Kyle D. S. Maclean & Antonio Martinez-Sykora & Asbj{o}rn Nil, 2018. "Dynamic Pricing and Learning with Competition: Insights from the Dynamic Pricing Challenge at the 2017 INFORMS RM & Pricing Conference," Papers 1804.03219, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:62:y:2014:i:5:p:1142-1167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.