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Folding Back in Decision Tree Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rakesh Sarin

    (Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90024-1481)

  • Peter Wakker

    (Medical Decision Making Unit, University of Leiden (AZL), Leiden, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This note demonstrates that two minimal requirements of decision tree analysis, the folding back procedure and the interchangeability of consecutive event nodes, imply independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Rakesh Sarin & Peter Wakker, 1994. "Folding Back in Decision Tree Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(5), pages 625-628, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:40:y:1994:i:5:p:625-628
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.5.625
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation," General Economics and Teaching 0412003, EconWPA.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Lusk, Edward J, 1984. "The choice of a forecasting model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 427-435.
    3. Scott Armstrong, J., 1988. "Research needs in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 449-465.
    4. Robert Carbone & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners," General Economics and Teaching 0412008, EconWPA.
    5. Robert Carbone & Spyros Makridakis, 1986. "Forecasting When Pattern Changes Occur Beyond the Historical Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 257-271, March.
    6. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    7. Sanders, NR & Ritzman, LP, 1990. "Improving short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 365-373.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. d'Aspremont, Claude & Gevers, Louis, 2002. "Social welfare functionals and interpersonal comparability," Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare,in: K. J. Arrow & A. K. Sen & K. Suzumura (ed.), Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 459-541 Elsevier.
    2. Volij, Oscar, 2002. "A remark on bargaining and non-expected utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 17-24, September.
    3. A. Nebout, 2014. "Sequential decision making without independence: a new conceptual approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, pages 85-110.
    4. Brookhart, Susan M. & Casile, William J. & McCown, Rick R., 1997. "Enhancing the possibility of success by measuring the probability of failure in an educational program," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 17-25, February.
    5. Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii & Ben Polak, 1996. "Preference for Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1114, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii & Ben Polak, 2000. "Preference for Information and Dynamic Consistency," Theory and Decision, Springer, pages 263-286.
    7. Epper, Thomas & Fehr-Duda, Helga, 2017. "A Tale of Two Tails: On the Coexistence of Overweighting and Underweighting of Rare Extreme Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1705, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    8. A. Nebout, 2014. "Sequential decision making without independence: a new conceptual approach," Theory and Decision, Springer, pages 85-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decision analysis; dynamic choice;

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