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A Friction Model for Describing and Forecasting Price Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Wayne S. DeSarbo

    (Southern Methodist University)

  • Vithala R. Rao

    (Cornell University)

  • Joel H. Steckel

    (Columbia University)

  • Jerry Wind

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Richard Colombo

    (New York University)

Abstract

This paper presents a new friction model for describing the price changes of a product or brand over time and for forecasting both the timing and magnitude of such changes from one period to the next. After a review of the related pricing literature, we present our model and a modified controlled random search procedure for estimating its parameters. The model is applied to describe and forecast the weekly mortgage interest rates for a local bank in the Philadelphia area. Finally, limitations and several potential applications of this methodology are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne S. DeSarbo & Vithala R. Rao & Joel H. Steckel & Jerry Wind & Richard Colombo, 1987. "A Friction Model for Describing and Forecasting Price Changes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 299-319.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:6:y:1987:i:4:p:299-319
    DOI: 10.1287/mksc.6.4.299
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    Cited by:

    1. Ray, Sourav & Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Bergen, Mark & Levy, Daniel, 2006. "Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 109-201.
    2. Harlam, Bari A. & Krishna, Aradhna & Lehmann, Donald R. & Mela, Carl, 1995. "Impact of bundle type, price framing and familiarity on purchase intention for the bundle," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 57-66, May.
    3. Warwick Anderson, 2009. "Alternative event study methodology for detecting dividend signals in the context of joint dividend and earnings announcements," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(2), pages 247-265, June.
    4. Omori, Yasuhiro & Miyawaki, Koji, 2010. "Tobit model with covariate dependent thresholds," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2736-2752, November.

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